Saturday, 28 Dec 2024

Scorching 2022 heatwave will become the UK's new normal within 40 years

The summer heatwave of 2022 broke records, becoming the hottest summer since records began in 1884.

Even the biggest sun-worshippers struggled as UK temperatures were measured at over 40°C for the first time.

The heatwave led to around 3,000 excess deaths, led to droughts which triggered widespread hosepipe bans, and disrupted transport.

But the Met Office has now warned that by 2060, those scorching temperatures will be considered an ‘average year’, the Telegraph reports.

And it believes both the July heatwave and the record-breaking warm year were made more likely by climate change.

Its annual report into the UK’s climate is based on the assumption that carbon emissions will peak around 2045 and then start falling.

Mike Kendon, from the Met Office’s national climate information centre, said there would be ‘very, very many more days exceeding 30°C, 32°C and 35°C’ in the future under that emissions scenario.

He added: ‘UK climate projections show that even under a medium emissions scenario, a year like 2022, currently the warmest year on record, could be the norm by the middle of the century and relatively cool by the end of the century.



‘Our climate in the UK has a lot of year-to-year variability, but taken overall, 2022 is a potential warning of what we should expect in the future.’

The UK’s extreme temperatures are changing much faster than its average temperature, the report found, because the extremes are influenced by hot air from the Iberian Peninsula and North Africa.

Other findings in the report include:

  • Winter, spring, summer and autumn 2022 were all ranked in the top 10 warmest seasons for the UK in series from 1884 (winter from 1885).
  • All the top-10 warmest years for the UK in the series from 1884 have occurred in the 21st century.
  • The 10-year period from 2013 to 2022 is the warmest since 1884.
  • 2022 was one of the least snowy years on record when compared to the last 60 years.
  • Britain’s annual mean temperature was above 10°C for the first time.
  • 2022 included the UK’s eighth wettest February on record but January, March, April, July and August were all notably dry, particularly across England and Wales, and the UK had its driest summer since 1995.
  • 2022 was the seventh sunniest year in the UK series from 1910, with 110% of the 1991–2020 average. England had its equal-sunniest year.

Professor Liz Bentley, the chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, said: ‘2022 was certainly a record-breaking year for the UK and is another example that extreme heat events are becoming more frequent, intense and prolonged because of human-induced climate change – something we are seeing being played out across Europe.’

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