Election news: Polling expert issues devastating Brexit warning on tactical voting impact
The previous president of YouGov Peter Kellner explained that large numbers of tactical voting weren’t necessary to swing an election. While speaking on LBC Mr Kellner told Andrew Castle that tactical voting could be very effective with anything between three to five percent of voters doing so, in key seats. He added that despite polling experts expecting a Tory majority, tactical voting in key seats could prevent this and weaken the likelihood of Brexit being resolved.
He said: “Back in 1997 the Tony Blair landslide, the Conservatives lost between 30 and 40 seats as a result of tactical voting.
“You don’t need a huge number of tactical voters.
“You need three, four or five percent of voters in the key seats making a tactical switch and that can have a big effect.
“The pollsters pretty much agree on the general national figures that the Conservatives are heading for a modest overall majority.
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“They need 326 seats for a majority and it seems they are heading somewhere between 340 and 360.
“But the point is that therefore if tactical voting can deprive the Conservatives 30 or so seats they could well move from having a clear majority to having a hung Parliament.
“They will still be the biggest party but they might not be able to deliver Brexit.”
Mr Kellner also explained the difficulties regarding tactical voting on the Remain side of the argument.
He said: “I think Labour voters have no real difficulty voting Lib Dem with a local career choice of a Lib Dem versus Conservative outcome.
“For Lib Dems supporters, it’s slightly more complex because overwhelmingly they want to stop Brexit. On the other hand, most of them don’t like Jeremy Corbyn.”
The polling expert also gave a rough estimate of how many seats were tactical voting seats.
Mr Kellner admitted it was a difficult question but noted that according to the Observer, there are about 50 seats.
He added: “I’m not saying tactical voting is not going to be decisive in all of them by any means.
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“If you live in one of those 50 and if you want to stop Brexit, it’s worth thinking hard about whether you support the party you’re normally likely to support or whether you might on this occasion vote a different way in order to defeat Brexit.”
Earlier this week former Conservative leader John Major caused controversy as he urged voters to stop Boris Johnson through tactical voting.
In a video message, he said: “Tribal loyalty has its place.
“But sometimes you need to vote with your head and your heart.
“You need to vote for your country and your future, this is such a time.”
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