Election 2019: The constituencies where YOUR VOTE could determine the outcome
The CEO of pollster Ipsos Mori, Ben Page, spoke to Jeremy Vine on BBC Radio 2 about tactical voting in the election this week. Both main parties have been targeting constituencies that are traditionally Labour, but also voted for Brexit. Mr Page told listeners these were where their votes are “really going to matter”, and gave suggestions on who to back at the polls.
He told Mr Vine: “Workington or somewhere like Bolsover, these are places where we saw a big Leave vote.
“The Brexit Party, of course, is standing there.
“And in these places, where there’s only 5000 or so, or even less, in it.
“In that sort of place, your vote really is going to matter.”
The expert continued: “So if you are in that place and you want to keep it Labour and you don’t like the Conservatives then you better go and vote Labour even if you’re a Lib Dem supporter.
“If you’re a Brexit voter, you better not vote for the Brexit Party because they aren’t going to win.
“You better go vote for the Conservative Party, who look like, for example in Bolsover or indeed in Workington, that they’re the only viable opposition.”
Mr Page also spoke about the changing demographics of each party.
He told listeners: “One of the most striking things about 2017 was the Conservatives, because of Brexit, had their best ever vote among working class people.
“And Labour, again partly because of Brexit, had their best ever vote among middle class people.
“If that sort of thing continues then you’re seeing the base support for the two parties fundamentally changing.”
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Polling guru Sir John Curtice is confident in Boris Johnson’s chances of forming a majority after Thursday’s vote.
He told LBC: “If the polls are at all right, there is about a 70 percent chance the Conservatives will get the overall majority they need.
“The 10-point lead they currently have in the polls will be adequate if it translates to the ballot boxes.
“But the 10-point lead is an average figure.
“Some polls give a bigger lead and if that’s the case, then frankly there is nothing much for the Tories to worry about.”
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