Saturday, 25 May 2024

Election MRP poll: The 32 seats the Tories could GAIN tomorrow – MAPPED

The first December election since 1923 is only a day away and political leaders are in their final stage of campaigning. On December 12, voters will elect the 650 members of the UK’s House of Commons, and with less than 24 hours to go before polling stations open, a new mega-poll from YouGov has given the Conservative Party a massive boost.

In 2017, the Tories lost its majority in a snap election.

This time around Prime Minister Boris Johnson is aiming for an outright majority in a bid to break the Brexit deadlock.

And Mr Johnson, who is the MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, may have received a hint of what’s to come last night as YouGov’s final MRP poll of the 2019 general election was released.

The poll has shown Mr Johnson’s party could gain 32 seats on Thursday – winning 339 seats in the 650-seat Parliament.

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Most of the seats changing hands are ones Labour won in 2017, passing back to Tory control.

What happens in these constituencies is key to deciding whether Mr Johnson has a majority and how large it may be.

This is the final public polling YouGov will conduct before Thursday’s vote and the pollster interviewed approximate 100,000 British adults between December 4 and 10.

The model correctly called 93 percent of seats in 2017 and should the MRP poll be right, this would be the Conservative’s best performance since 1987.

Labour, on the other hand, is set to lose 31 seats – falling from 262 in 2017 to 231 – and take 34 percent of the vote.

This would be the party’s worst performance since 1983.

However, an interesting insight from the MRP poll is Labour’s late rise.

In the election two years ago Jeremy Corbyn’s party started to close the gap a few weeks out from the election and then stayed steady for the final week.

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This time around, however, it seems like the gap is closing very late in the campaign.

Chris Curtis, YouGov’s Political Research Manager, said: “Our latest and final poll shows that a small Conservative majority is likely, with the Tories taking 22 more seats than in 2017 and Labour losing 31.

“This would be the best and worst results respectively for each party since the 80s.

“But the margins are extremely tight and small swings in a small number of seats, perhaps from tactical voting and a continuation of Labour’s recent upward trend, means we can’t currently rule out a hung parliament.

“As things currently stand there are 85 seats with a margin of error of 5 percent or less.”

The 32 seats the Tories could gain

  • North Norfolk
  • Barrow and Furness
  • Derby North
  • Penistone and Stocksbridge
  • Dudley North
  • Eastbourne
  • Ashfield
  • Don Valley
  • Wakefield
  • Newcastle-Under-Lyme
  • Bassetlaw
  • Peterborough
  • Bury South
  • Colne Valley
  • Darlington
  • Rother Valley
  • Bishop Auckland
  • Wolverhampton North East
  • Stoke-On-Trent North
  • Blackpool South
  • West Bromwich West
  • Scunthorpe
  • Crewe and Nantwich
  • Ipswich
  • Bolsover
  • Keighley
  • Sedgefield
  • Dagenham and Rainham
  • Great Grimsby
  • Lanark and Hamilton East
  • Vale of Clwyd
  • Wrexham

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