A House of Commons vote that will give Theresa May’s Brexit strategy a desperately needed lifeline – or potentially kill it off for good – is being held on the day the UK was supposed to leave the EU.

On a day of reckoning for the prime minister, as protests by pro-Brexit campaigners and far-right groups are held outside parliament, she faces the threat of another humiliating defeat as MPs vote on her withdrawal agreement.

The vote – a high-stakes gamble and almost certainly one last chance for Mrs May – is not on her whole Brexit deal, since it does not include the political declaration, and nor is it a so-called meaningful vote.

And with a mutiny by up to 20 Conservative MPs expected, as well as the Democratic Unionists, Labour and other Opposition parties voting against the agreement, the prime minister could suffer a third major Commons defeat on her deal.

The motion being debated by MPs, cleared by Commons Speaker John Bercow after he warned he would not allow a repeat of an earlier one, approves the withdrawal agreement so the UK can leave the EU on 22 May.

If it is defeated, the UK will have until 12 April to ask for a further extension to Brexit negotiations – which Brussels has insisted would require elections to the European Parliament – or leave the EU with no deal.

But despite Mrs May’s sacrifice this week of offering to quit after Brexit is delivered, it appears not enough rebel Conservative MPs have switched to supporting the prime minister to hand her victory in Friday’s vote.

Tory opponents claim the withdrawal agreement – which covers the Irish backstop, payments to Brussels and citizens’ rights – fails to take back control from the EU to Westminster.

Leading Brexiteer Sir Bill Cash told Sky News: “The withdrawal agreement itself has been the result of our supplication to the EU.

“We have done things on their terms of influence. It has not been well negotiated and for my money it’s a duff agreement.”

Despite a 20-minute phone call with the prime minister on the eve of the vote, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said his MPs would not back the government move.

A Labour spokesman said: “Jeremy made clear Labour will not agree a blindfold Brexit to force through Theresa May’s damaging deal, which would leave the next Tory party leader free to rip up essential rights and protections and undermine jobs and living standards.”

The DUP’s Westminster leader Nigel Dodds confirmed that his party would not support Mrs May on the issue, either.

“We will be voting against the withdrawal agreement because the concerns that we have about the trade border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, and what that would mean in terms of who makes our laws – not Stormont or Westminster – those concerns remain,” he said.

“We regret the fact that we weren’t able to get to a position to support the withdrawal agreement, and the fact of the matter is that had there been legally binding changes at treaty level then we could have been in business.”

The Liberal Democrat chief whip Alistair Carmichael said: “Whether this deal passes tomorrow or not, Brexit must be put to the public.

“It should be the people, not politicians, who are given the final say on the deal with the option to stay in the EU.

“Yet again the Conservatives are using the House of Commons to paper over the cracks in their own party.

“Their problem is that these cracks are too deep for paper.”

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