Tuesday, 7 May 2024

With Catalan Fury Inflamed Anew, What Comes Next for Spain?

MADRID — The sentencing on Monday of 12 former leaders of Catalonia’s independence movement for their involvement in a failed attempt to break away from Spain in 2017 has set off days of protests and reignited long-running tensions in the region.

The territorial dispute and its ramifications have loomed over Spanish politics since Catalan separatists gained momentum for their cause — culminating in a 2017 referendum that was deemed unconstitutional by Spain — and declared independence. The central government in Madrid cracked down and imposed a period of direct rule on the region, quashing the attempt at secession and ousting its separatist government.

But the lengthy prison sentences handed down to the leaders have prompted a new wave of unrest in the region at a pivotal time for Spain, which heads into a national election next month, the fourth such vote in the country in four years.

What happened in the ruling?

The Supreme Court sentenced nine leaders to between nine and 13 years in prison for sedition as well as misuse of public funds. Another three politicians were found guilty of the lesser crime of disobedience during the turmoil of 2017.

The judges dropped the most serious charge of rebellion, which could have led to sentences of up to 25 years. While highlighting “episodes of violence,” the judges presented the secession attempt as “a chimera,” fabricated by politicians who misled “excited citizens.” The Supreme Court ruled that the separatist lawmakers had deliberately flouted Spanish legislation, while creating their own parallel system of laws.

The ruling came ahead of a European court decision over whether to grant immunity to the politicians who won seats in European Parliament in elections last May. If the condemned politicians can argue that their sentences violate fundamental rights, their cases could be appealed before the Constitutional Court of Spain and perhaps even the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg, France.

There is also a question mark over how the sentences will be served, since the Supreme Court confirmed the right of the Catalan regional authorities to manage their own prison system. Some of the condemned separatist leaders could be eligible for parole from next January.

What does this mean for Spanish politics?

The verdict comes just weeks before Spain is set to hold its fourth election in four years and amid fragility and party fragmentation. The repeat election on Nov. 10 was called after Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and his Socialist Party failed to gain enough support from smaller parties to convert their April election victory into a workable government.

During an address to the nation on Monday, Mr. Sánchez said the Supreme Court ruling confirmed Spain as one of the world’s most solid democracies and would allow Catalonia to enter “a new stage.”

But Mr. Sánchez and Quim Torra, the separatist leader of the regional Catalan government, have made no political headway toward resolving the dispute since they both took office in June 2018. Mr. Torra promised on Monday to “advance on the path toward a Catalan republic, without excuses.” During a visit to Madrid in September, he warned that Catalonia could follow the example set by demonstrators in Hong Kong.

While the Socialists lead in the polls, the renewed focus on Catalonia could swing voters, particularly if the protests escalate. Mr. Torra has demanded a general amnesty for the sentenced leaders, and Mr. Sánchez could use his executive powers to grant individual pardons. But the main opposition parties want Mr. Sánchez to promise he will not show such leniency.

How serious are the demonstrations?

Since the sentencing, separatist protesters have come out in force in cities across Catalonia. The actions have disrupted transportation hubs, including Barcelona’s airport, where over 100 flights were canceled on Monday because of a mass rally. A general strike across Catalonia is scheduled for Friday.

On Tuesday, after a day of largely peaceful protests, some demonstrators clashed with the police late in the evening in Barcelona and in other cities. The police fired tear gas against protesters who erected street barricades that they then set alight. The Spanish government condemned illegal acts of violence that threatened law and order in Catalonia.

When the Catalan region celebrated its national day on Sept. 11, about 600,000 demonstrated in Barcelona in favor of independence, compared with one million who took part the previous year.

But Catalan society remains split by the independence drive. Separatist politicians have governed the region since 2015, winning the most parliamentary seats in several regional elections without ever gaining an absolute majority of the votes.

Over the past decade, two civil society organizations, the Assemblea Nacional Catalana and Omnium Cultural, have been the driving force behind the Catalan independence movement, organizing some of Europe’s largest demonstrations. The former leaders of both groups were among the separatist leaders sentenced to nine years in prison on Monday.

While both groups continue to organize protests, Monday’s attempted blockade of the Barcelona airport was orchestrated by a mysterious new organization called Tsunami Democratic. The Spanish government has opened a judicial inquiry into the group to investigate its possible links to elected politicians.

How are the police responding?

Mr. Sánchez’s government has praised the national police force and the autonomous police force of Catalonia for cooperation in their approach to the demonstrations. The collaboration stands in stark contrast to 2017, when a rift between Spanish and Catalan police officers complicated an already tumultuous situation. The former police chief of Catalonia is still awaiting trial for failing to follow Madrid’s orders at the time.

The Spanish authorities recently sent anti-riot police reinforcements to Catalonia. Last month, the Spanish police detained seven hard-line activists, who were accused by a Spanish judge of preparing acts of terrorism. Mr. Torra denounced the charges as a political fabrication to justify a clampdown on separatists.

The Socialist government has threatened to use its emergency powers to restore order, potentially putting Catalonia back under direct rule from Madrid, as happened in October 2017.

What has happened to Carles Puigdemont?

On Monday, a Spanish judge issued a new European arrest warrant for Carles Puigdemont, the former leader of the regional Catalan government. Mr. Puigdemont fled abroad in October 2017 after Spain’s government forced his ouster, and has since successfully fought against the attempts to extradite him from Belgium and more recently from Germany. A German regional court rejected the Spanish claim that he had led a rebellion.

Spanish prosecutors now want the Belgian authorities to return Mr. Puigdemont to Spain to face trial for sedition rather than rebellion. Spain’s judiciary could also issue new international warrants for a handful of other separatist politicians who have been avoiding Spanish prosecution in Belgium, Scotland and Switzerland.

Raphael Minder has been based in Madrid as the Spain and Portugal correspondent since 2010. He previously worked for Bloomberg News in Switzerland and for the Financial Times in Paris, Brussels, Sydney and finally Hong Kong. @RaphaelMinder

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