Wednesday, 27 Nov 2024

What is the R value? Doctor explains what R really means

The R value, also known as the reproductive number, is used to rate a disease’s ability to spread. The figure refers to the number of people that an infected person will pass the virus on to.

Boris Johnson addressed the UK on Sunday evening and outlined a “conditional plan” to reopen society using a new COVID alert system.

Mr Johnson earlier unveiled a new message to the public of “stay alert, control the virus, save lives”, with relaxed measures allowing people in England more time outside.

The Prime Minister also said keeping the “R” down would be critical in further decisions over the lockdown measures.

In a social media post, Dr Philip Lee, a consultant physician in acute medicine and medicine for the elderly, has offered further information on the R value and its importance.

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He wrote on Twitter: “For the uninitiated, R0 is the basic reproduction number for a disease.

“This is basically how many people one infected person will go on, on average, to infect.

“For instance, one child with measles can infect up to 18. Hence the importance of vaccination.

“As long as R is above one, this means the number of infected persons will grow.

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“Eric who has COVID-19 might pass it onto Margaret from accounts, Sanjay who touched a handrail he touched, Susan his wife, and Bob who met him for a drink. R here is 4

“BUT if Margaret worked from home, Sanjay cycled or used hand sanitizer coming off the bus, and Bob told Eric to p*** off, then the R falls to 1.

“And if Susan sleeps in a different room, washes her hands all the time and stops Eric from germing up the city, R is even lower.

“Hence the importance of ongoing social distancing measures. The lower R is, the faster we will reduce the threat of this spreading again.

“There’s going to be wild virus out there but as long as the R falls the number of infected people will decrease.

“And that will stop the NHS from being overwhelmed, and it’ll stop Sanjay from ending up on ICU, or Margaret passing it onto the elderly mother she lives with.

“Staying at home if you can, maintaining distancing, hand hygiene, that’s how we beat this.

“People still must not congregate in large numbers. Social distancing must still be maintained.

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“That is how we win, staying alert alone is not enough.”

The Prime Minister says the current R value in the UK is “between 0.5 and 0.9”.

In his televised address, Mr Johnson added: “Every day, with ever increasing data, we will be monitoring the R and the number of new infections, and the progress we are making.

“And if we as a nation begin to fulfil the conditions I have set out, then in the next few weeks and months we may be able to go further.”

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