Boris Johnson has ‘lost the right to govern’ says Ian Blackford

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In recent weeks allegations of Downing Street parties that were in breach of Covid rules have gathered pace. The most recent development saw the Metropolitan Police Commissioner Dame Cressida Dick announce on Tuesday a police investigation into a number of these accusations. Consequently, pressure is growing on Boris Johnson to leave his position as PM, but how could this happen? If he does, what are the possible outcomes that may follow?

How could Boris Johnson be ousted?

Mr Johnson could be ousted by his own MPs if 15 percent (54 MPs) submit a letter of no confidence in the leader to the chair of the 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady.

In this scenario he would then need to secure the backing of more than 50 percent of Tory MPs (179), to avoid forfeiting his leadership credentials.

Alternatively, the PM has the option of resigning out of his own choice should he bow to growing demands.

So, if either of these scenarios were to transpire, what are the possibilities that could follow?

1.) Tory leadership contest

Conservative MPs and members would likely hold a leadership contest to choose a new leader, and therefore the new Prime Minister, without an election.

When Mr Johnson’s predecessor Theresa May resigned in 2019 this set of circumstances was fulfilled.

The exact rules of each Tory leadership contest vary, but there are two stages and the process takes a couple of months to complete.

First, Tory politicians whittle the field down to two candidates. This allows factions of MPs to ‘stitch up’ the shortlist to keep extreme candidates off the ballot paper.

A series of votes are used to eliminate candidates from the running, with these events generally taking place on Tuesday’s and Thursday’s.

The MP with the fewest votes each time gets eliminated, along with anyone who’s fallen below a minimum number of votes for that round.

Tory members then hold a one-member-one-vote election to pick between the final two choices.

Once a winner is decided that individual becomes the leader of the Conservative Party and moves on to Buckingham Palace to ask the Queen to appoint them as Prime Minister.

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2.) Snap election

A snap election is simply when a general election is called earlier than expected.

General elections in the UK are held at least once every five years. At the moment, the next general election is due to be held on May 2 2024.

Under the Fixed-term Parliament Act, the PM can only trigger an early election if two-thirds of MPs are in support of the idea.

There are currently 650 MPs who sit in the House of Commons, so they would need to get enough support to do this.

A new Tory leader could call a snap election to grow their level of influence in the Government, but the idea wouldn’t come without its risks.

Politico’s most recent poll – correct as of January 24 – showed that public support for the Tories was nine percent lower than Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party.

Were a snap election to take place the Tories could face the prospect of dropping ground to their closest rival or lose the election altogether.

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