The coronavirus pandemic could largely be over in Britain by October, a top scientist has predicted.

Professor Neil Ferguson – whose modelling led to the first lockdown in March 2020 – said caution is still needed, but cases are ‘plateauing’.

The hopeful comments come as health leaders warned the NHS is as stretched now as it was at the height of the pandemic in January, and things will get worse before they get better.

Prof Ferguson, from Imperial College London, said it will be ‘several more weeks’ before the effect of the July 19 unlocking in England is known.

But he stressed vaccines had ‘fundamentally changed’ the equation in combating the disease.

He told BBC Radio Four’s Today programme: ‘We need to remain cautious, especially with the potential increase in contact rates again as the weather becomes less fine and schools return.

‘We’re not completely out of the woods, but the equation has fundamentally changed. The effect of vaccines is hugely reducing the risk of hospitalisations and death.

‘And I’m positive that by late September or October time we will be looking back at most of the pandemic.

‘We will have Covid with us, we will still have people dying from Covid, but we’ll have put the bulk of the pandemic behind us.’

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Official figures yesterday showed the number of Covid-19 cases newly reported in the UK dropped for the sixth day in a row.

However there has been a rise in hospital admissions in England.

A total of 5,055 patients were in hospital with Covid-19 in England on Monday.

This is up 33% from the previous week and the highest since March 18, but still well below levels seen in the second wave of the pandemic.

More than half of Covid hospital admissions are patients who only tested positive later, the Daily Telegraph reported, citing leaked data.

The newspaper said that as of Thursday, just 44% of patients classed as being in hospital with Covid had tested positive when they were admitted.

A Number 10 spokesman said the fall in cases was ‘encouraging’ but numbers were still expected to rise, adding that ‘the Prime Minister thinks we’re not out of the woods yet’.

It comes after Boris Johnson was warned today that the next phase in the NHS’s fight against Covid-19 is likely to be ‘the hardest yet’ given the scale and breadth of pressures the health service is facing.

A letter from NHS providers, which represents hospital trusts, citied a backlog of care across hospitals, rising Covid admissions, cases of long covid and people suffering from poor mental health.

It called on ministers to make ‘the right decisions’ over the next month as it finalises NHS funding for the second half of the financial year.

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