The UK’s coronavirus R number has fallen to a range of 0.8 to 1, meaning the spread of the disease could now be in decline.

It suggests lockdown measures have started to have a significant impact, as last Friday’s estimate was 1.2 to 1.3.

The R number, estimated by the Government’s Science and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), has not been below 1 since early December.

The current range means that on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 8 and 10 other people. Any R rate below 1 means the spread of the virus is slowing.

It is the first time the R number has been below 1 since England’s third national lockdown was introduced on January 6, increasing pressures on ministers to set out a strategy on how to lift restrictions.

Boris Johnson has so far refused to rule out extending the lockdown until summer, despite nearly 5million people now receiving at least their first dose of the Covid vaccine.

A group of 70 lockdown-sceptic Tory MPs have urged the Prime Minister to publish a timetable to start easing measures no later than March, claiming that struggling businesses and those out of work ‘must see light at the end of the tunnel’.

Johnson is set to hold a Downing Street press conference at 5pm this evening in which he is expected to discuss both the progress of the UK’s vaccine rollout and how long lockdown rules might last.

According to Sage, The R number is even lower in some regions, ranging from 0.6 to 0.9 in the East of England and 0.7 to 0.9 in London.

There’s spread still could be growing in the South West, North West and the Midlands, which all thought to have an R number of between 0.9 and 1.2. This means every 10 people infected would go on to infect between 9 and 12 others.

Guidance published by the Government today shows the UK’s Covid-19 growth rate is between -4% and -1%, meaning the number of new infections is shrinking by between 1% and 4% per day.

Estimates are based on infections over the past few weeks due to the time delay between someone being infected, developing systems and getting tested.

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