UK is not prepared for ‘worst-case scenario’ winter spike as fears 120k people will die
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A report published on Tuesday warned this winter could see triple the amount of deaths than the first outbreak in a “reasonable worst-case scenario”. This prediction did not factor in care home fatalities which have made up to a third of the near 45,000 deaths due to coronavirus so far in the UK.
The report set out 20 steps the UK Government must take in order to reduce the chance of a second deadly outbreak.
It included stocking up on PPE, vaccinating millions more UK residents against the flu and quickly improving contact tracing.
But the Royal College of GPs claimed medics have been left without clear guidance on how they should prepare for a second wave of COVID-19 infected patients.
In a statement the chair of the RCGP, Professor Martin Marshall, said the College needed reassurances immediately that staff and patients will be protected if there is a second outbreak.
He added: “The College has been advocating for comprehensive planning to ensure the UK is prepared for a potential second wave or local peaks of the COVID-19 virus.
“We will do what is necessary, in the best interests of patient care, but we need to know what plans are and have the appropriate guidance and resources to swiftly respond to a second wave of the virus, mitigating its potential severity and helping to keep patients and their wider communities safe.”
Lib Dem MP Layla Moran has backed the RCGP’s calls for clearer guidance.
She said: “There is simply no time to waste.
“I urge the Government to look closely at the recommendations made in the report and act without delay.”
Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that the Nightingale Hospitals will be kept on standby through the winter.
Matt Hancock, Health Secretary, has also promised to deliver the “biggest flu vaccination programme in history” to block an influenza outbreak occurring at the same time as a second wave of coronavirus.
This comes after MPs on the cross-party public accounts committee raised their concerns that the Government has not ironed out plans to distribute PPE in the event of another outbreak.
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So far more than 300 healthcare workers have died from COVID-19.
NHS staff groups stated shortages of masks, gloves and aprons played a key role in exposing healthcare workers to the virus.
Professor Marshall said: “Winter is always a busy time for general practice, as it is across the NHS, as GPs and our teams deal with many patients suffering from flu and other common winter illnesses in the community.
“A second wave of Covid-19, on top of these challenges, would put the NHS under considerable pressure, so it’s sensible to look at potential worst case scenarios, as this report does, so that we can plan and put mitigating measures in place.
“The College has been advocating for comprehensive planning to ensure the UK is prepared for a potential second wave or local peaks of the COVID-19 virus.”
Leading academics from the Academy of Medical Sciences found 3,000 people could die every day in hospitals during the worst of the outbreak in December and January.
If there is a second outbreak, the data suggests 119,900 patients with COVID-19 would die in NHS hospitals between September and next June.
Professor Marshall added: “We need to recognise that a second wave of COVID-19, during the time when the NHS is busiest, will be incredibly disruptive for all sectors of the health service, and for patients at any stage of illness.
“Amongst other things, we need to ensure that the NHS is prepared to protect our most vulnerable patients and staff; that procurement and supply of appropriate PPE is secured; and that communication channels between national services are optimal and resources are distributed where they are most needed.”
In the UK there are nearly 300 thousand confirmed cases of COVID-19.
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