Polls are suggesting the Conservatives will win the General Election – but turnout has been anecdotedly high, reports have voters still wavering and polls have been proven wrong before.

What does the outcome of this historic election in the UK mean for Ireland?

Scenario One: A Boris Victory – Conservative Majority

Opinion polls suggest Boris Johnson is on course to return on as Prime Minister with a Conservative Party majority after British voters cast their ballots today.

If Johnson does win, he is expected to move quickly. The talk is he will keep same Cabinet team in place – with that proviso that they are all re-elected. This will save him some time and allow him travel to Buckingham Palace on Friday morning or afternoon to seek the Queen’s permission to form a Government.   

His next move will be to get the Brexit deal he trashed out with Taoiseach Leo Varadkar passed by the House of Commons and he has long promised to hold this vote before Christmas. The British parliament may even sit on Christmas Eve. 

The Taoiseach and Tanaiste Simon Coveney will be waiting with bated breath on Friday morning to comment on the outcome of the election and take as much credit as possible as a general election nears close on this side of the Irish Sea.

Then the European Parliament will vote on Brexit in mid January. Nothing can be taken for granted but it could pass quite easily and allow Johnson to leave the EU before the end of the month. 

After that, everyone moves on to the future trade relationship discussion, which will take years. But in the meanwhile, the realities of Brexit will begin to kick in here in Ireland.

All the warnings about the impact it will have on our economy will be tested for the first time and the Government will hope their dire forecasts were overstated. Fianna Fail, meanwhile, will be left with very little excuse for supporting Fine Gael’s minority government. All this points towards a February general election.

Scenario Two: Corbyn defies the odds – Labour beat the Tories

British Labour Party leader Jeremey Corbyn may defy the odds and accusations of anti-Semitism to put himself in a position to form a government with Scottish Nationalist Party or maybe even the Liberal Democrats.

We are looking a groundhog day for Brexit if this happens. But there is a possibility Corbyn will head for Brussels as the third UK Prime Minister to negotiate a Brexit deal.

The Labour leader will look for a closer aligned exit strategy which will be good news for Ireland as the UK will mostly likely remain in the single market and customs union. The bad news is there will be more uncertainty around the deal as Corbyn has promised to put his new deal to the public again in a referendum. 

The referendum will, however, have the option of the UK staying in the EU and forgetting all this unsightly Brexit carry on. Of course, this would be great news for Ireland as all the worst excesses of Brexit would be shelved for good, or until another Prime Minister decided to appease Eurosceptic party members.

Scenario Three: Hung Parliament – horse trading between parties begin

There is also the possibility that neither Johnson nor Corbyn will have the votes to form a government and then you’re facing into days if not weeks of horse trading between the political parties.

Johnson may have to tuck his tail between his legs and do his most convincing puppy-eyed routine with Democratic Unionist Party leader Arlene Foster to seek forgiveness. Foster has quite pointedly said during the campaign that she can’t trust him so this will be no easy task for the prime minister. 

The Liberal Democrats may also be approached by either leader to form a government too. Who knows? This is Brexit Britain after all.

None this spells good news for Ireland as anything but a Conservative Party majority means you’re looking at more changes to the EU exit deal and more pantomime votes in the House of Commons and, if this happens, who knows if they will ever “Get Brexit Done”.

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