Friday, 15 Nov 2024

Tories remain divided on withdrawal deal plan B as Brexit clock ticks on

But one famous clock has stopped for repairs.

Big Ben is a metaphor for the deadlocked parliament below it, where the prime minister has acknowledged her Brexit plan is jammed.

So what now…

Well firstly, Theresa May will have to go back to Brussels to negotiate a plan B. The problem is there are differing views within her party on what she should be asking for.

Conservative MP Sam Gyimah, who resigned from government over the deal, says: “Throughout this process we have set red lines, but we’ve found we can’t really negotiate those red lines – so that’s why I say we need to consider every option.”

Peter Bone MP says: “We need a firm proposal and that includes a trade agreement before we hand over any money.”

If the prime minister does somehow come back with a new deal before Christmas, there will still need to be a vote. If she loses that, time is really running out.

Officially, the government would then have 21 days to outline a new way forward, but parliament rises on 20 December.

MPs return on 7 January and may wish to amend the plans further. The cut-off date for all of this is 21 January to give parliament time to implement legislation before Brexit day.

But these squeezed timelines are best case scenarios. A lot more could go wrong and that would get the clock ticking even faster.

One possibility is a no confidence vote in the government which could be initiated by the Labour Party – it’s unlikely to be successful, because Labour would have to win over the DUP.

But if they managed it, both parties would then have 14 days to form a government that could command a majority in the Commons.

If that fails it’s a general election. A five-week run would probably ballot in mid-February.

A third possible option is that the Tories could submit 48 letters of no confidence in their leader. If Mrs May loses a ballot of MPs, or stands down, expect a large field of candidates trying to replace her.

Then there would be ballots among MPs to whittle down the runners at a rate of two rejected each week.

So even if it started now, the MPs’ selection process for a new leader could run into early January. Then Tory members vote on the final two candidates. That again brings us to mid-February before it’s sorted.

Campaigners for a “people’s vote” on the deal have the biggest time issue. A second referendum would require new legislation.

Former education secretary Justine Greening says it could be done in 22 weeks but the fastest referendum of recent times (the AV referendum) took 40 weeks.

So from the introduction of legislation for a referendum to polling day, that would take us to October 2019. To do this we would have to revoke or extend Article 50 and put back Brexit day.

The court in Luxembourg says the UK has the right to cancel Article 50 altogether, but that doesn’t mean we can extend the cut-off date it to whatever time suits us – for that we need agreement from the EU.

Charles Grant, director for the Centre of European Reform, says: “If you don’t get the deal approved by January, there’s not time to do the legislation. Therefore we are looking at the possibility of Article 50 being extended.

“When I talk to EU negotiators they say we will extend if there is good reason, a referendum or an election, but if reason is, ‘well the Tory party needs a few more weeks for another battle…’ then they’ll say no.”

If the government does not extend or revoke Article 50 (and the government says it won’t) and we don’t have a deal by 29 March, then we leave without a deal. That would be the only option.

It’s a mistake to think that any legislation passed in parliament could stop that happening.

Source: Read Full Article

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