A new variant of COVID-19 has begun sweeping the country with fears of a fresh wave of infection as the NHS faces its annual winter pressure. Experts from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) are tracking the JN.1 variant which made up one in 13 cases of Covid in November.

Infectious disease experts have insisted the chances of a new coronavirus variant sending countries back into lockdown are slight. Figures suggest COVID-19 hospital admissions in England remain low, with no sign yet of a winter surge in infections.

Admission of patients testing positive for Covid stood at a rate of 2.9 per 100,000 people in the week to December 3, up from 2.6 the previous week but the same level as a fortnight ago, according to the UKHSA.

At this point in 2022 the rate stood at 5.5 per 100,000, up from 4.8 the previous week and on its way to a peak of 11.4 in the run-up to Christmas.

Here Express.co.uk takes a look at the JN.1 variant and what the latest figures tell us about its spread.

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What is the JN.1 variant?

JN.1 is a sub-lineage of the BA.2.86 Omicron variant and was first detected in Luxembourg in August. It then spread to the UK, US, France and other countries. Its parent was initially detected in Denmark in July.

The first BA.2.86 cases appeared in Britain in August. JN.1 is sometimes referred to as the Pirola variant. Clare Bryant, Professor of Innate Immunity at the University of Cambridge, told Sky at the end of last month JN.1 will “probably become the next common variant”.

Dr Meera Chand, Deputy Director for Clinical and Emerging Infections at the UKHSA, said: “Through our genomic surveillance we continue to see evolution of variants in the Omicron family.

“JN.1 was designated as a variant on the basis of increasing prevalence.”

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How is JN.1 different to other variants?

Pirola has one mutation in its spike protein, which dictates how easily it infects cells, in comparison with BA.2.86. JN.1 was first spotted by the UKHSA as part of routine horizon scanning, which is the name given to the process of monitoring emerging infections that have the potential to affect Britain.

The variant was flagged as it contains the L455S mutation in the spike protein, known to help the virus dodge immune protection built up from previous infection and inoculation.

UKHSA this week designated the strain an official variant, labelling it V-23DEC-01, as part of a process which means it is officially being tracked.

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What do the statistics show?

Figures show the JN.1 variant was behind 7.9 percent of Covid cases in November. A total of 302 Covid cases in the UK have been caused by JN.1, of which the vast majority (223) were in England, as of Monday (December 4).

Dr Meaghan Kall said JN.1 has a weekly estimated growth rate advantage of 84.2 percent, meaning the variant is taking off faster than any other strain seen in at least eight months, according to the UKHSA epidemiologist.

She wrote on X that JN.1 “might cause a wave”. Dr Kall added: “It seems likely we must now add variant pressures to the forecast of a winter Covid wave.”

Figures released on Thursday also show the number of people in hospital in England with winter viruses such as norovirus and flu is “creeping up”.

Health chiefs have said to expect further increases and growing pressure on emergency departments as the NHS faces the combined impact of cold weather, social mixing at Christmas parties and looming strike action by junior doctors.

An average of 406 adult hospital beds were filled last week by patients with diarrhoea and vomiting or norovirus-like symptoms, according to data from NHS England. That was up 16 percent from 351 beds the previous week and more than a quarter (28 percent) on this point last year, when the average stood at 318.

The figures have been published as part of the weekly snapshot of how the NHS in England is performing this winter.

They show the number of people in hospital with flu has also risen week-on-week but remains well below levels seen at this stage in 2022.

An average of 243 flu patients were in hospital beds in England each day last week, including nine in critical care, up 52% from 160 the previous week.

The total stood at 772 at this point last year and would rise sharply throughout December as the UK experienced its worst flu season for a decade.

People have been urged to book their flu and COVID-19 vaccinations as soon as possible, ahead of the closure of the national booking system next week.

Dr Mary Ramsay, director of public health programmes at the UK Health Security Agency, said: “Millions of eligible people are missing out on vital vaccinations that will provide protection against severe disease this winter.”

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