A bombshell new poll suggests the Conservatives could win as many as 366 seats in the General Election – giving them a majority of 40.

The projection has Labour winning as few as 199 MPs – but suggests the outcome could shift dramatically based on tactical voting.

But Best For Britain’s poll claims Boris Johnson could yet be deprived of a majority, if anti-Conservative voters target 57 marginal seats.

It says the Tories could win between 309 and 366 seats, and Labour 199 and 244, based on whether the public vote tactically or not.

According to the strongly pro-Remain group’s analysis, the Scottish National Party will win between 44 and 52 seats, while the Lib Dems take 17 to 21.

Plaid Cymru has four seats, with the Greens on one and the Brexit Party on zero. The poll does not include seats in Northern Ireland.

With 650 seats up for grabs, parties needs 326 seats for a formal majority.

The poll comes ahead of a projection tonight which is widely expected to be one of the most accurate forecasts of the final result so far.

YouGov’s 10pm poll uses the same method which was relatively accurate in 2017 in predicting a hung parliament. It uses a seat-by-seat ‘multilevel regression and post-stratification’ (MRP).

The latest poll of polls gives the Tories an 11% lead over Labour, though that margin has narrowed in the last few days.

Best For Britain’s poll is the first MRP poll to account for the Brexit Party standing down in 317 Tory-held seats.

It surveyed nearly 40,000 British adults between October 15 and November 24.

Without tactical voting, the analysis suggests Labour, the Lib Dems, SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru would hold a combined 265 seats. This scenario would see the Conservatives win up to 366 seats and a majority, having been boosted by roughly three quarters of Brexit Party voters who no longer have a candidate from Nigel Farage’s party to back in their seat.

However, many of the constituencies that the Tories are anticipated to hold or win are vulnerable, according to Best For Britain.

Its poll suggests 165 seats are now likely to be won by a margin of 5,000 votes or less, meaning tactical voting could help anti-Brexit parties stop a Conservative majority.

The company are due to issue another similar poll three days before the December 12 election.

Best for Britain CEO Naomi Smith said: ‘Our data shows that tactical voting will be decisive at the upcoming election.

‘Even with the Brexit Party collapse, there are still lots of seats in play for remainers.

She continued: ‘This is crucial as it means they could be won by pro-EU parties if voters hold their nose and vote for the party with the best shot of beating the Tories.

‘Having updated our recommendations just as the first wave of postal votes land on doorsteps, we’re confident that this election is up for grabs. We can stop Boris Johnson, and stop Brexit.’

The founder of Focaldata – which ran the data – Justin Ibbetts, added: ‘There are 14 Conservative held seats where the margin of victory is lower than 2%. Clearly this election is on a knife edge, where even small changes in the number of votes each party wins could swing key seats.’

The polls themselves could also have an impact on the final result, if the public are convinced that the Conservatives are set to win a majority.

Polling companies were widely ridiculed in 2017 for the industry’s failure to predict the final result.

Got a story for Metro.co.uk?

Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at [email protected]. For more stories like this, check our news page.

Source: Read Full Article