Eoghan Murphy, Regina Doherty and Joe McHugh are among the Fine Gael ministers now in danger of losing their seat if the party’s dire performance continues. Those in need of a ‘Leo lift’ are now in danger of becoming ‘Leo’s losers’.

Well over a dozen of Leo Varadkar’s seats are in danger if he can’t halt the party’s slide.

‘Yes We Tan’ appeared to be the Fine Gael slogan for the opening week of the new decade. The furore over the supposed Black ‘n’ Tans commemoration for the Royal Irish Constabulary kicked the New Year off in disastrous fashion.

It played out at the worst possible time coming just days before the calling of a snap General Election.

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The Government’s comically awful handling of a sensitive issue provided the backdrop to the opinion poll taken by Behaviour and Attitudes for ‘The Sunday Times’. Add in the worst A&E trolley crisis ever over the Christmas period and the ongoing housing situation and Fine Gael was caught in the perfect storm.

The remarkable Exchequer Returns for 2019 – showing the turnaround in the public finances over the course of the 2010s, a surplus and tax revenue at the highest level ever – didn’t get a look in.

The poll puts Fine Gael on 20pc, down seven points, and below even the party’s 2002 meltdown of 22.5pc.

The nadir will be surpassed by a new rock bottom if this is repeated on election day.

What it also shows is the shift of support between the two big parties as Fianna Fáil went up five points to 32pc.

The results illustrate how the Civil War parties are failing to draw major new support as almost half of voters are still looking elsewhere.

The poll will put a greater scrutiny on Fianna Fáil’s offering but also concentrate minds within Fine Gael.

The old political adage that there’s only one poll that matters and that’s on election day certainly applies.

However, if this pattern was repeated in the election, a series of Fine Gael ministers and TDs will be in deep trouble, along with severe difficulties in replacing retiring TDs.

And it’s not just Fianna Fáil who would benefit from a Fine Gael collapse either.

Here’s a snapshot of the seats now in danger, and from where, if Fine Gael ends up anywhere near that poll result:

SITTING TDs STRUGGLING

Noel Rock

Already holding a marginal seat in Dublin North-West, Rock would be decimated by Fianna Fáil’s Paul McAuliffe.

Rock finished behind McAuliffe in first preferences last time out and won by only 700 votes on transfers.

Eoghan Murphy

A swing against a government tends to hit a minister in a volatile south Dublin constituency. And Labour’s Kevin Humphreys is based in Murphy’s end of the constituency. His colleague Kate O’Connell won’t feel safe either.

Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy

Corcoran-Kennedy’s seat in Laois-Offaly would be lost to Fianna Fáil’s Peter Ormond, also from Birr in Offaly.

Pat Deering

The party’s chances of holding two in Carlow-Kilkenny were already only 50:50.

A bad day tips it completely and Deering would lose out on the Carlow side to Fianna Fail’s Jennifer Murnane-O’Connor as that party strides towards three seats.

Catherine Byrne

Dublin South-Central is no Fine Gael stronghold. Fianna Fáil’s Catherine Ardagh would take out Byrne.

Joe McHugh

His wife, former Laois-Offaly TD Olwyn Enright, knows how to survive wipeouts after being elected in 2002. Donegal is one of Fine Gael’s weakest areas of support and Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil and Independents are all strongly pushing for the five seats.

Paul Kehoe

It’s already a toss up between Kehoe and fellow minister Michael D’Arcy to see who is in greater danger in Wexford. Kehoe is deemed to be in more peril on a bad Fine Gael day.

But a really good day for Fianna Fáil means new TD Malcolm Byrne wins Gorey and D’Arcy could lose out.

The debacle of Verona Murphy’s by-election performance and being booted off the ticket has left the party in disarray.

Joe Carey

A resurgent Fianna Fáil would easily take two seats in Clare with Timmy Dooley and Cathal Crowe. Fine Gael just wouldn’t have enough votes to hold two and Joe Carey would be susceptible to an Independent.

Hildegarde Naughton

Fine Gael minister Seán Kyne looks the stronger with Connemara on his back, leaving Naughton in jeopardy in Galway West.

Fianna Fáil’s Ollie Crowe and the Green Party’s Pauline O’Reilly would be in contention to replace her.

Bernard Durkan

One of the great survivors of the 2002 meltdown, Durkan is now in the firing line in Kildare North from the Green Party’s Vincent P Martin and Labour’s Emmett Stagg.

Andrew Doyle

Alongside Simon Harris, Doyle, the junior minister, provides a well-balanced ticket in Wicklow.

But the party would struggle to share the vote evenly between Harris in the north and Doyle in the west.

Regina Doherty

With only one seat on offer in Meath East, Doherty is more vulnerable to Fianna Fáil’s Deirdre Geraghty-Smith, who shares her base of Ratoath.

Her colleague Helen McEntee would also have greater old Fine Gael loyalty to call upon.

However, it would have to be a really bad day as this is Fine Gael’s best spot after Mayo. The old Meath constituency was the only place to return two Fine Gael TDs in 2002.

RETIRING TDs NOT REPLACED

Fine Gael will also be up the creek in constituencies where sitting TDs are retiring.

There are no cases where the party ticket is stronger with the departures.

Tony McLoughlin’s old seat

A problem area for Fine Gael with Frank Feighan coming in from Roscommon and Thomas Walsh added as a late addition.

Independent Marian Harkin senses a weakness.

Michael Noonan’s old seat

In Limerick City, Kieran O’Donnell and Maria Byrne should have enough but it’s by no means guaranteed.

John Deasy’s old seat

Damien Geoghegan and John Cummins are untested with Fianna Fáil’s Eddie Mulligan circling in Waterford.

Jim Daly’s old seat

Having no Fine Gael seat in Cork South-West would have Michael Collins turning in his grave. One to watch though.

Enda Kenny’s old seat

Fine Gael not winning a seat in Castlebar is surely unthinkable. It would require an absolute collapse in the vote for Alan Dillon not to replace him.

The Dún Laoghaire seat

Fine Gael has Seán Barrett retiring and Maria Bailey being dropped. The hopes of holding a seat would be non-existent. Mary Mitchell-O’Connor would be lucky to hold on with Fianna Fáil, the Green Party and Solidarity-People Before Profit.

The Cork North-Central seat

Dara Murphy’s infamous departure left a bitter taste.

GAINS GONE

Forget about making gains in Cavan-Monaghan, Cork South-Central, Louth, Laois-Offaly, Dublin Rathdown and Longford-Westmeath.

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