Sturgeon: Expert discusses ‘crucial advantage’

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First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is heading into the Scottish elections this May with the prospect of an SNP majority on a knife-edge. Various polls have put the SNP just short or just over the line for a majority – the latter could be crucial if Ms Sturgeon is to triumph in her demands for another independence referendum. However, former SNP leader Alex Salmond threw a spanner in the works last week as he launched a new political party. Unveiling the new pro-independence Alba Party, Mr Salmond said the “new political force” will field a minimum of four candidates in each regional list, with the aim of electing Alba MSPs from every area of Scotland. Yesterday Neale Hanvey MP left the SNP to join Alba.

He told Sky News: “Like so many, I have been angered by our powerlessness in the face of Brexit and share the frustration of many who feel the aspirations of the independence movement are being ignored.

“The Alba Party provides a tonic for our movement with an unashamedly optimistic vision for Scotland’s impending transition to an independent European nation.”

BBC Newsnight’s Policy Editor Lewis Goodall outlined last week the impact Mr Salmond and the recent controversy surrounding him and Ms Sturgeon has impacted the SNP going into the Holyrood election.

Mr Goodall said: “This has been a traumatic period for both Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP, the site of their former and current leader embroiled in open warfare has damaged the First Minister and affected her poll ratings.

“But the danger for them surely is, Alex Salmond’s continued presence on the campaign trail only serves to remind voters of this ugly period, and Sturgeon’s exoneration in the Hamilton inquiry isn’t the full stop to the affair that so many in the SNP hoped it would be.”

An independent inquiry by senior Irish lawyer James Hamilton examined whether the SNP chief misled Holyrood over what she knew about accusations relating to her predecessor.

Mr Hamilton’s report said Ms Sturgeon had given an “incomplete narrative of events” to MSPs but concluded this was a “genuine failure of recollection” and not deliberate.

A Holyrood inquiry, however, found that Ms Sturgeon did mislead Parliament, adding that her government “badly” let down women who lodged complaints against Mr Salmond.

Gina Davidson, Deputy Political Editor of The Scotsman, told Newsnight that she believes Mr Salmond’s “ego” played a part in his return to Scottish politics.

She said: “I think he was waiting, biding his time until all of that was done and dusted so he could rise phoenix-like again from the ashes and try and carve out another political career because I think he misses it.

“He’s a politician through and through and he wants to be involved.

“I also think there’s part of him, you know, he has a large ego, and there’s a part of him that thinks if there is going to be another independence referendum, he wants to be involved in that.”

Much has been made of how Alba could impact the SNP’s electoral hopes.

In Scottish elections, there are two votes – for the constituencies and the regional lists.

The constituency vote is where the voter chooses their preferred candidate for their constituency.

Each candidate for all 73 constituencies in Scotland is elected by a simple majority system known as first-past-the-post.

The candidate with the highest number of votes wins, with all other votes counting for nothing.

The regional vote is the second vote, used to elect an ‘additional’ member to the system.

Scotland is divided into eight regions, with seven candidates elected from each.

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Each eligible voter in Scotland is therefore represented by one constituency and seven regional MSPs after the election.

The Alba Party is only standing candidates in the regional list, where the SNP is unlikely to do well because of its dominance in the constituency votes.

Mr Salmond therefore believes that this will not hinder Ms Sturgeon and co, and that he can help form a pro independence “super majority” while hurting the unionist parties in the regional list vote.

However, Chris Curtis of Opinium says there are issues with this theory.

He said: “When we have seen people try and manipulate systems like this before, Italy is a good example, it usually involved a nod and a wink and parties working together.

“The fact that the SNP is quite aggressively coming out and saying to their voters ‘don’t support Alex Salmond’s party’, is going to make things more difficult for him.

“As is the fact he is not a popular man in Scotland – Just 14 percent of the Scottish population have a favourable view of him.”

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