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This warning has come from scientists who have consulted Government ministers about how the worst-case scenario for many this winter would be many more fatalities. The forecast counts the number of people who could die in hospitals before next June. It also comes from a report commissioned by Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, released by the Academy of Medical Sciences.

There are suggestions being made that a second spike could be deadlier than the first.

With the R rate – the average number of people someone with COVID-19 passes the virus on to – rising to 1.7 from September.

The current R number in the UK is 0.7-0.9.

Regional figures suggest that in areas such as the Midlands and London, the R-value has dropped slightly.

Meanwhile, in areas such as the East of England, there has been a slight increase.

The figures also show that the overall growth rate – which reflects how quickly the number of infections is changing day by day – is decreasing.

Professor James Naismith, Director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, said that the figures could suggest that the easing of lockdown has not resulted in the second spike of cases.

He said: “That the number of cases is falling slightly is to be welcomed.

“This suggests that so far, relaxation of the lockdown has not precipitated a second wave.

“It has to be emphasised that no one knows what the safe level of relaxation is for the UK and there is a delay between action and consequence.

“The virus is here and we could easily see a surge in cases if a mistake is made.”

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It’s likely that a rise in the current R number would see the UK return to lockdown.

Ministers have already warned they will reimpose emergency measures if the R rate rises above one.

The 37 scientists and academics behind the report said the peak in hospital admissions and deaths could come in January and February 2021.

Their startling research does not include deaths in the community or care homes – or take into account any extra interventions by the government.

Speaking to Sky News, Professor Azra Ghani, a disease epidemiologist who worked on the report said the findings are “not a prediction” but a “worst-case scenario” that could see the coronavirus outbreak grow “out of control”.

She said, “As we move into winter, the weather gets worse, people stay indoors more, windows aren’t open so the likelihood of transmission does of course increase.

“We also have all sorts of other pressures on the NHS that increase during the winter and therefore extra admissions into hospitals.

“It’s all of these things coupled together that could cause this worst-case scenario.

“We need the systems to be up and running by September.”

NHS staff are already “very tired” and have worked “extremely hard” to battle the pandemic, says GP Richard Vautrey.

He urged politicians to get the “necessary funding in place”, ensure there are enough stocks of personal protective equipment (PPE) and ramp up the test and trace system.

A government spokesperson said the report “represents a worst-case scenario based on no government action, and makes clear this isn’t a prediction”.

They added: “Thanks to the nation’s collective efforts, the virus is being brought under control.”

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