Mr Rees-Mogg says his model is based on figures from Cardiff University’s World Trade Model. He argues the costs of a hard EU exit in terms of trade disruption have been greatly overstated whilst the advantages, such as from new trade deals with non-EU countries, have been played down. Mr Rees-Mogg was reacting to last week’s prediction from Philip Hammond that a no deal Brexit would cost £90billion.

Writing in The Daily Telegraph he said: “Philip Hammond’s negative view of no deal Brexit is pure silliness: it could boost our economy by £80billion.

“It is disappointing to see his predictions so heavily reliant on the Treasury’s ‘Project Fear’ economic model first published in November 2018.

“Recent models employed by economists independent of the Government, notably the World Trade Model developed at Cardiff University, have found the total positive impact of no deal could be in the region of about £80billion.

“Put simply the idea that we will be poorer in the long-term and even in the short-term after Brexit is a myth.”

Mr Rees-Mogg does not specify the time period the extra £80billion would be spread over.

Both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, who are contesting the Conservative Party leadership, have pledged to take Britain out of the EU without an exit deal.

Mr Johnson has said he will not extend Brexit again beyond October 31, whilst Mr Hunt stated he would accept a short delay to help secure the best agreement.

Specifically Mr Rees-Mogg challenges the assertion that free-trade deals with non-EU countries would only boost GDP by 0.2 percent of GDP.

He wrote: “This compares with Cardiff University’s model showing deals with non-EU countries would yield a 4 percent boost in GDP.”

Mr Rees-Mogg also challenged the Treasury’s assertion that reduced regulation after Brexit would only increase the economy by 0.1 percent, claiming the true figure is between 2 and 6 percent.

However the Confederation of British Industry has repeatedly warned of the risks of a no deal exit.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme about a hard Brexit its director general Carolyn Fairbairn commented: “Short-term disruption and long-term damage to British competitiveness will be severe if we leave without one.

“The vast majority of firms can never be prepared for no deal, particularly our small and medium-sized members who cannot afford complex and costly contingency plans.”

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