Sunday, 24 Nov 2024

Polling guru John Curtice warns rebel ‘surrender’ bill does NOT rule out a no deal Brexit

The polling guru explained that “politicians don’t want to be clear” about the fact the bill doesn’t stop a no deal Brexit happening but allows for vote on it to be ruled out on October 19. The vote would come after Prime Minister Boris Johnson returns from the European Council with or without a deal sparking a vote on whether the House of Commons will let the UK leave the EU with a deal on October 31. Following the vote on the legislation of the bill on Wednesday night, Mr Johnson called for a snap general election which was rejected by MPs who are keen to seek a Brexit delay.

Speaking to BBC News, Professor Curtice said: “None of the politicians want to be exactly clear about the bill that the Government is now saying will be allowed to go through does not on its own rule out a no deal Brexit.

“What it does do is to give the House of Commons the opportunity on October 19 to rule out no deal if the Prime Minister comes back and says I haven’t got a deal.

“The argument is whether or not you need to delay the election so that the house of Commons is still sitting on October 19 and then therefore the provisions of the bill could be used to stop a no deal Brexit.

“Knowing that event you’re basically talking about an election not taking place earlier than five weeks after that so you’re looking towards the tail of November.

“The argument on the other side is if Boris Johnson does come back from the European Council with a deal and can get it through the House of Commons and that’s not necessarily guaranteed, then you will be giving an opportunity to have a general election just after having his success getting us outside of the EU.

“It’s safer for the opposition to say no to an election now and wait to see what happens in mid-October and if it seems to be in their interest.”

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn rejected calls for a general election as MPs voted for the election Bill by 298 to 56 – but fell short of the two-thirds majority needed to trigger the election under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act as many opposition MPs abstained.

Mr Johnson said he is the first opposition leader in history to refuse an invite to an election.

The country’s leader claimed it’s because Mr Corbyn doesn’t believe he can win an election.

Mr Curtice added: “There is one other issue because the House of Commons dealt with this issue yesterday there is a question mark as to whether or not the government will be allowed to bring the same motion back again on Monday or Tuesday because the convention states you cannot deal with the same issue in the same session.

“That may mean the government is forced to go one of the other ways to call a general election which is to try and pass a bill but because the government has said we’re proroguing parliament next week, will there be time to get such a bill through.

“So this is the conundrum the opposition is facing and potentially something Mr Johnson could face too.”

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The political professor has previously revealed a potential election will see a close fight between four parties, the Conservative Party, Brexit Party, Labour Party and Liberal Democrats.

Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Mr Curtice said: “The real point about an early election is the dynamics will depend on a battle not so much between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn but a battle between Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage.”

The Tories currently have an eight-point lead ahead of Labour in the polls with 33 percent overall.

While the Brexit Party is slightly diminished at 12 percent.

Source: Read Full Article

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