Friday, 22 Nov 2024

Polling guru Chris Curtis makes shock election prediction which will anger Leave voters

Pollsters YouGov predicted the outcome of each seat in the Christmas election which gave Boris Johnson a majority of 359 – a 41 seat increase on the 318 seats they won in 2017. The data predicted that Jeremy Corbyn will suffer a fall of 51 seats and only win 211 in next month’s election. But Chris Curtis has since warned the Labour Party could close the gap since there aren’t more voters for the Tories to appeal to.

Speaking on BBC’s Politics Live, Mr Curtis said: “I agree that the lead has been fairly static but actually when you look at the underlying numbers there’s been a fair bit of movement.

“But what we’ve seen is both the Tories and Labour going up so far at about the same rates.

“The Tories have done a fairly good job at gaining back those Leave voters.

“Labour has done a fairly good job at squeezing back those Remain voters particularly back from the Liberal Democrats and from the Green Party.

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“Now hear I think it the question for the next week and a half we’ve got left.

“When you look at the numbers you kind of feels like the Tories might have run out of voters to squeeze.

“Whereas actually there’s still a lot more voters for labour to potentially squeeze so then question left for the rest of the campaign is firstly, can Labour squeeze them and is there enough time left to continue to squeeze them, close that gap and push into hung Parliament territory?”

Further polls since YouGov’s seat prediction has shown Mr Corbyn gaining on Boris Johnson.

Mr Curtis added later in the show: “The other thing as well, we’re not talking about is it going to be a Labour majority or a Tory majority.

“What we’re really talking about it are the Conservatives going to get a majority or not given that most of the other parties in Parliament are probably not going to support a Boris Johnson Government.”

He explained the Tory has a lead of “about six percent” ahead of Labour who “could close the gap”.

His comments come as The bookies are offering 1/20 odds-on favourites for the Tories, with 12/1 that Labour will secure a majority, 100/1 it will be the Lib Dems in control, and a dismal 250/1 for a Brexit Party majority.

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Oddschecker’s projections are indicating the Tories are on track for 351 seats after the general election, which would be a majority of 25 seats.

While according to Ladbrokes, Boros Johnson’s Tory party has a 67 percent chance of emerging victorious at next week’s election,.

The firm rates the Conservative party as a 1/2 shot to secure a majority on December 12th, however it is only 7/4 for a hung parliament.

Recent support for Labour has seen their odds cut into 20/1 (from 25/1) for overall success.

Jessica O’Reilly of Ladbrokes said: “The polls may suggest that the Tory lead is narrowing, but the odds are yet to drastically feel that impact, leaving Boris Johnson and co. as the clear favourites to land a majority.”

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