Saturday, 4 May 2024

Philip Ryan: 'Sigh of relief from Fine Gael over latest opinion poll results – but only slight'

A slight sigh of relief could be heard from Fine Gael headquarters on Mount Street in Dublin when the latest public opinion poll was published. But only slight.

The Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll had just two points between Fianna Fail (25pc) and Fine Gael (23pc). The gap certainly was not as pronounced as the weekend opinion poll which showed a massive 12 point gap between the parties.

However, Fine Gael’s standing with the public is pretty stagnant with both polls showing just one-in-five voters are willing to vote for Leo Varadkar’s party.

Even more worrying for Fine Gael is the significant drop in the Taoiseach’s personal satisfaction rating which nose dived from 51pc in October to 35pc per cent, according the second poll of the campaign.

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Fianna Fáil TDs will be happy they are in the lead and that Mr Martin (33pc) is just about the most popular political leader. But the champagne will remain on ice and Kevin O’Keeffe won’t be hanging out the sun roof of a limo just yet.

Sinn Féin will of course be delighted to see their support is up seven points to 21pc meaning they are just two points behind Fine Gael.

It will also feed into their argument that Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald should be allowed take part in the televised leadership debates with Mr Martin and Mr Varadkar.

Over the weekend, the initial reaction among politicians to the first opinion poll of the General Election campaign was shock. The second was dismissal. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil candidates were going to great lengths to dismiss the poll which suggested there was a 12-point gap between the parties in terms of public support.

The ‘Sunday Times’/Behaviour and Attitudes poll had Fine Gael on 20pc and Fianna Fáil on 32pc. But the latest poll shows Fianna Fáil’s major gains were overstated and the cautious approach of both parties was correct.

Those working behind the scenes in Fine Gael say there is no panic about how the campaign has worked out for them so far.

However, there is concern across all ranks of the party about the Taoiseach’s performance in the field. Senior party figures, ministers and candidates are all concerned about his ability to connect with the public. There also are fears that the stage-managed approach to the campaign tour of the country is coming across stilted.

  • Read more:
    Fianna Fáil just two points ahead of Fine Gael in latest opinion poll

Candidates are also worried that the party is not unveiling any new policies while those that are announced are rehashed commitments made over the course of the last Dáil term. Which is strange given that Fine Gael’s now infamous, and deleted, campaign video targeted Fianna Fáil for not having any new policies.

Since the Twitter storm surrounding the video, Fianna Fáil announced a fairly substantial commitment to set up a SSIA-style savings account for first-time buyers.

It has been talking about it for a few years. But now, as people realise it could be leading the next government, it seems more tangible for voters. Fine Gael, meanwhile, is repeating promises about free GP and dental care and parental leave.

For a party whose slogan is ‘A Future to Look Forward to’, it seems obsessed with promoting things it already committed to doing in the past. Of course, it would tell you everything it pledges is properly costed and accounted for. It also has a few tricks up its sleeve, or so it says.

But shiny objects reflect brightest to voters and at the moment Fianna Fáil’s plan to give mortgage savers up to €10,000 certainly outshines Fine Gael in terms of new thinking on housing. Especially when Fine Gael’s offer on housing so far has been asking voters to trust it to do the same thing it hasn’t been doing very well for the last few years.

When Fianna Fáil does unveil its election manifesto later this week, it will be subjected to intense scrutiny and you can be sure there will be accusations of costings being done on the back of a matchbox.

But if Fine Gael doesn’t come up with some new ideas soon it will be left looking very stale and boring. Particularly when Fianna Fáil’s message is all about change.

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