Oh dear, Nicola! John Curtice exposes major risk to Sturgeon’s independence dreams
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While Ms Sturgeon has 64 MSP seats in the Scottish Parliament, Sir John revealed the rival Alba Party may fragment the nationalist movement. Although Alba does not have an MSP in Parliament and remains a small threat presently, Sir John revealed Alex Salmond’s party still remains a possible “risk” to Ms Sturgeon’s hopes in the long-term. Speaking to Express.co.uk, Sir John used the Brexit referendum to illustrate how Ms Sturgeon may fail in her hopes to break up the UK.
Sir John said: “I mean, in my view, the great one great advantage of the nationalist movement in Scotland, is that it is politically united.
“The SNP and support for independence is basically synonymous with each other.
“And the SNP are the political representatives of the nationalist movement in Scotland.
“In contrast, the Unionism movement in Scotland is seriously fragmented, the journey between conservative and labor and also to some degree, the Liberal Democrats, that is a very, substantial advantage.
“So the risk for the nationalist movement with the other party is that, you know, if there is further significant fragmenting of that movement, such that nationalism in Scotland begins to be politically fragmented, in much the same way as the union movement is.
“Now you only have to point to what happened over Brexit, to see why this matters.
“The United Kingdom left the European Union not because at the end of the day, it was clear that more people wanted to leave, than wanted to remain but because the leave voters were united by Boris Johnson behind the Conservative Party, whereas the remain side remained were fragmented between Labour.
“That is a salutary lesson for both unionists and nationalists north of the border, fragmentation makes it much more detailed to deliver these projects.”
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Following the election in May, Alba failed to win a seat while the SNP won a further two seats to take their overall count to 64.
Although the SNP fell one seat short of winning an overall majority, Ms Sturgeon has remained steadfast in her pursuit to bring forward a referendum in the first years of the new Parliament.
Due to this, Sir John claimed Ms Sturgeon has managed to fend off the threat from the Alba Party although they could grow to become a significant benefit to Boris Johnson.
Sir John said: “Alba looked as though it was the most significant threat to the fragmentation of the nationalist movement in Scotland.
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“It’s one that Sturgeon I think, saw off in May, but yes, it’s still there.
“It’s still a potential risk.
“If I were Boris Johnson, I would be delighted if the other party became more popular.”
In order to hold a second referendum, Holyrood must have permission from Mr Johnson.
However, No10 has ruled out holding a referendum in the near future with the Government claiming the SNP should focus on the economic recovery from the pandemic.
A Scottish Conservative Party spokesperson also added: “As we recover from the devastating effects of the Covid pandemic, the last thing Scotland needs is another divisive independence referendum.
“All of our focus should be on our economic recovery and rebuilding our communities.”
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