Polling expert Sir John Curtice warned Prime Minister Boris Johnson he would have to prepare for SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon having a stronger argument for independence in 2021. Sir John insisted the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections could put pressure on Mr Johnson to grant Ms Sturgeon a Scottish independence referendum. The polling expert noted the Prime Minister’s current stance of “simply saying no” would not be an adequate response to the SNP if they win more seats in the upcoming election.

Sir John said: “The crucial question is how does public opinion react to the reality of Brexit?

“Does it go: Brexit is rather unfortunate, but life moves on, or do we see a further shift?

“We may begin to find evidence in the opinion polls that instead of the Yes for independence trailing behind it begins to be consistently ahead.

“We could even see more public support for a second referendum.

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“Almost all of this will be a backdrop to the May 2021 Scottish Parliament elections.

“Ultimately if in the wake of the May 2021 Scottish Parliament elections if there is still clearly a pro-independence majority inside the Scottish Parliament, Boris Johnson simply saying no may not be enough.”

The polling expert also outlined what he argued were the similarities between the Brexit argument and the Scottish independence argument.

He added over the past year Scottish public opinion was slowly shifting towards support for a referendum and this made the future unclear.

He said: “Public opinion will matter in Scotland.

“Public opinion in Scotland has not shifted dramatically but it has shifted enough that the outcome of a second independence referendum is less certain than it was a year ago.

“On average the opinion polls now have 48-49 percent for yes to being independent of the UK.

“That increase in support is wholly to be found among Remain supporters.

“Whatever your views on the merits of Brexit it is very difficult to avoid the conclusion that for the time being it has undermined support for staying inside of the UK.

“The arguments for Scottish independence are very similar in that for Brexit.

“The arguments that leave voters cite about sovereignty, relating to Brussels, members of the SNP will cite relating to London.”

The next Scottish Parliament elections are set to be held on the 6th of May 2021.

Nicola Sturgeon is standing as the SNP candidate, Jackson Carlaw is standing for the Conservative Party, Richard Leonard is standing for the Labour Party, Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater are standing for the Scottish Green Party and Willie Rennie is standing for the Liberal Democrat party.

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