Macron and Le Pen face new test in French regional vote
PARIS (AFP) – France votes in the second round of regional elections on Sunday (June 27) after a first round that saw a drubbing for President Emmanuel Macron’s ruling party, disappointment for Ms Marine Le Pen’s far-right and record low turnout.
For some observers, the outcome of the June 20 first round raised doubts over whether the 2022 presidential election would come down to a duel between Mr Macron and Ms Le Pen in a run-off long seen as the most likely scenario.
The first-round results marked a boost for the traditional right-wing The Republicans as well as the Socialist Party, who have been squeezed after the centrist Mr Macron surged into power in 2017 with his brand-new Republic on the Move party.
Analysts warn against too much extrapolation onto a nationwide scale from the results of the regional elections, which choose the heads of France’s 13 mainland regions from Brittany in the northwest to the Provence-Alpes-Cote d’Azur region in the southeast.
But there was cross-party concern over the turnout for last week’s polls, which were shunned by 66.72 per cent of voters – a record in modern France.
“What we are seeing is the culmination of a disconnection between voters and the political class,” said Avignon University politics lecturer Jessica Sainty, while acknowledging that the Covid-19 crisis also played a role in high abstention rate.
The woeful turnout prompted a debate over how to improve participation, with several figures including government spokesman Gabriel Attal suggesting electronic voting could help in future.
According to a poll published last Thursday, just 36 per cent of voters plan to cast their ballots on Sunday. “France is sulking,” the Le Parisien newspaper said.
The first-round results put Le Pen’s National Rally ahead in just one region, Provence-Alpes-Cote d’Azur, a major disappointment after polls showed a possible breakthrough in several areas.
One of the most closely watched races on Sunday will be whether National Rally candidate Thierry Mariani can defeat his right-wing rival Renaud Muselier in the region.
Gaining control of a region for the first time would be a huge boost for Ms Le Pen as she seeks to convince voters that the National Rally – which she has reformed and rebranded since taking over from her firebrand father Jean-Marie – is a serious party of power.
Mr Muselier could be helped by the withdrawal of left-wing candidates in a repeat of the “Republican Front” seen in past presidential elections to block the far-right.
“The idea of a victory for Mariani – even if it is far from being probable – would show that the National Rally can almost triumph alone over the coalition of all the others and head the powerful executive of a modern region,” said Mr Jerome Sainte-Marie, president of the Pollingvox Institute.
Mr Mariani has been accused by critics of being an admirer of authoritarians like Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad. Prime Minister Jean Castex warned last week that a Mariani victory would be “very serious” for the country.
The National Rally also came up short in the Ile-de-France region that includes Paris, where its 25-year-old rising star Jordan Bardella failed to trouble right-wing incumbent Valerie Pecresse, who is now expected to easily win the second round.
The first-round results made even more unpalatable reading for Mr Macron and his Republic on the Move party, confirming its failure to put down local and regional roots despite controlling the presidency and lower house of parliament.
Despite sending several ministers to campaign and Mr Macron himself embarking on a nationwide tour – that saw him slapped by an onlooker at one point – in some regions the Republic on the Move party did not muster the required 10 per cent to make round two.
“2022: What if it wasn’t them?” asked the headline in the left-wing Liberation newspaper over a picture of Mr Macron and Ms Le Pen.
The Republic on the Move party has almost no chance of winning control of a single region and is currently just No. 5 among political parties in France.
The Socialists are expected to pick up some regions, partly due to support from the far-left France Unbowed party.
“LREM (Republic on the Move) lacks a local presence, but in 2017 that did not prevent them from winning the presidential and legislative elections,” said Avignon University’ s Ms Sainty.
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