The MP leading an investigation into coronavirus fears long Covid could cost the UK around £2.5 billion a year. 

Layla Moran believes the emerging crisis is comparable to the impact rheumatoid arthritis has on the health service, with hundreds of thousands of people expected to be dealing with the condition for months. 

The ONS says around one in ten people who test positive will go on to develop long Covid, a catch all term to describe a host of ongoing symptoms in coronavirus patients. More than 1.7 million Covid-19 infections have been reported since Christmas Day in the UK. 

Speaking exclusively to Metro.co.uk, Ms Moran – who chairs the All Party Parliamentary Group on coronavirus, said: ‘The amount of money that we are expecting to spend long term on long Covid could be similar to rheumatoid arthritis. How many people know someone with rheumatoid arthritis? It is going to be higher for long Covid.’

Around 400,000 people are currently battling the second most common form of arthritis in the UK, according to the NHS, while 300,000 were believed to have long Covid in early February – a number that is expected to rise dramatically.

Arthritis Action say the latest figures on rheumatoid arthritis – which are more than a decade old – suggest that the condition costs the health service £560 million annually, with an additional £1.8 billion in indirect costs to the economy. Those numbers are likely to have risen since.

Ms Moran’s intervention comes after Metro.co.uk highlighted the plight of children dealing with horrendous symptoms months after being infected and the long-term economic fall out of having previously healthy adults off work for lengthy periods. 

The Lib Dem continued: ‘We reckon there is at least 300,000 people right now in the UK that have long Covid. If we keep having the levels of community transmission that (the UK saw in recent weeks) it could be way higher than that.

’The amount of money that we spend on rheumatoid arthritis is in the order of £2.5 billion a year. 

‘So we have to recognise that this is not some sort of side, fringe issue, it is an enormous problem and we need to fix not just how we are dealing with the crisis but also the welfare system to account for it.’

Given that the cost of rheumatoid arthritis is likely to have increased since 2009 and cases of long Covid are set to rise significantly, the true cost may be far higher than £2.5 billion.

Two years ago, in a blog for NHS England, the Chair of the Arthritis and Musculoskeletal Alliance Professor Anthony Woolf wrote: ‘Osteoarthritis and rheumatoid arthritis costs £10.2 billion in the NHS and healthcare system now, and is expected to reach an estimated £118.6 billion in the next decade.’

Arthritis affects some 10 million people in the UK, though the majority have osteoarthritis, which affects some 9 million.

Asked directly about how much the NHS is expecting long Covid to cost and whether the comparison to rheumatoid arthritis is fair, a health service spokesperson did not address the question.

They told Metro.co.uk: ‘The NHS in England has already invested in nearly 70 new, specialist clinics covering the whole country, to ensure patients with long covid get the right treatment, but as a new condition, evidence on this virus and its impact is still emerging, so we will continue to work with clinicians, researchers and patients to develop services in response.’

Evidence is still emerging on long Covid, with campaigners and experts arguing that current data is poor, making it difficult for the health service to plan for its impact. 

The majority of people recover from the initial infection without long-term issues, but huge numbers are reporting debilitating symptoms for months on end, and many recent infections are yet to translate into long Covid.

It is unlikely that inoculated people will develop the condition and cases are expected to drop dramatically over the coming months, if the rapid vaccine roll out continues and another wave is avoided.

But the fall out from recent cases is likely to be felt across many sectors and for a significant amount of time, with experts unsure of when long Covid patients will recover.

Dr Amitava Banerjee, an expert looking at long Covid with the ONS, previously described the problem as ‘worse than a ticking time bomb’ and suggested the impact on the health service would be severe and prolonged.

Metro.co.uk has contacted the Department of Health for comment. 

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