Labour saved from complete annihilation by Brexit Party – polling guru highlights 20 seats
Last Thursday, Boris Johnson stormed to an election victory which saw the Tories win an 80 seat majority. Against Mr Johnson’s 80 seat majority, Jeremy Corbyn’s party slumped to its worst electoral defeat since the 1935 election.
According to the Tory candidate for Houghton and Sunderland South, Christopher Howarth, the result could have been much worse had the Brexit Party not stood.
Early in the election campaign, Nigel Farage announced his party would stand down 317 candidates in seats in Labour seats which voted to Leave in 2016.
Due to the pact, the Tories were able to win crucial gains in constituencies such as Dudley North, Bolster and Workington – all of which voted to Leave and had been Labour strongholds.
Writing for Brexit Central, the Tory candidate said the Brexit Party did not “reduce the Labour vote; they just diverted the anti-Labour vote to themselves”.
In support of Mr Howarth, chief executive of the polling firm Datapraxis, Paul Hilder told The Times the Tory majority would have have been at least 20 seats larger had the Brexit Party not stood.
He said: “According to our analysis, there are at least 20 Labour-held seats where the Brexit Party likely cost the Tories victory.
“One of the things that happened through the campaign was that some of the Labour to Brexit Party switchers came back to Labour, a few went tactically to the Tories and some ended up staying home.
“In seats such as Hartlepool, Rotherham and Barnsley Central and East, between 70 and 90 percent of Brexit Party voters said they would vote Conservative if it was a two-horse race, with a maximum of 6.5 percent choosing Labour instead.”
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In his potential seat, Mr Howarth received 13,095 votes as he lost out to labour candidate Bridget Phillips who received 16,210.
The Brexit Party candidate, Kein Yuill won 6,165 which Mr Howarth insisted allowed the Labour Party to win the seat.
Following the election, Mr Farage stated he will form the ‘Reform Party’.
Commenting on the future of the Brexit Party, Mr Howarth said: “So what now for the Brexit Party?
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“For now, they can marvel in their achievement of saving the Labour Party and blocking many pro-Brexit MPs from entering Parliament.
“In the longer term they should, of course, pack up.
“There is no purpose in the Brexit Party post-Brexit.
“It was Conservative MPs who ‘chucked Chequers’ and we now have a clearly pro-Brexit Conservative Party delivering Brexit.
“They should go quietly and with grace.”
In the wake of Labour’s terrible electoral result, former Prime Minister, Tony Blair has criticised his party for its handling of Brexit.
In a speech in London today, Mr Blair blamed the party’s loss on Mr Corbyn and his indecision over Brexit.
He said: “We pursued a path of almost comic indecision, alienated both sides of the debate, leaving our voters without guidance or leadership.
“The absence of leadership on what was obviously the biggest question facing the country then reinforced all the doubts about Jeremy Corbyn.
“To eject Boris Johnson from Downing Street, Jeremy Corbyn had to reverse Labour’s decline in its heartlands.
“Instead, his leadership and his political strategy achieved precisely the opposite.
“They drove even more traditional Labour supporters away from the party.”
Ultimately, he did, however, state the party’s problems will not be solved “by changing leader”.
Mr Corbyn will step down from the leadership in March with Jess Phillips, Sir Keir Starmer, Angela Rayner, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Lisa Nandy and Emily Thornberry are all expected to take part in the leadership contest.
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