Sunday, 24 Nov 2024

Is the EU making promises to Leo Varadkar it can’t keep? Historian’s doubts revealed

Mr Varadkar has openly supported the EU’s idea that the Irish backstop must remain after Brexit, unless another solution can be found. This would be a temporary measure with no border posts, physical barriers or checks on goods or people crossing between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Northern Ireland would then still be part of the customs union and have to obey certain rules of the Single Market. Brussels believes this will prevent violence returning to the border. Some in Westminster, on the other hand, think this would defeat the point of Brexit as Leave advocates claim Northern Ireland would still be in the EU and dub fears over a hard border and potential violence as “scaremongering”.

In a New Statesman comment piece last month, a historian explored how Mr Varadkar has played a part in this conflict by emphasising the importance of the backstop.

Mr Simms explained: “Varadkar, for his part, appeared to have played a blinder. He had brought the power of the European hegemony to bear on the UK.

“Britain was trapped in a customs union over which it had no say and could exit only by leaving Northern Ireland behind.”

Mr Simms emphasised how Dublin’s “high-risk strategy” adopted since the initial negotiations had collapsed was problematic.

“For the first time in the history of their state, the inhabitants of the 26 countries would have to choose between two rival ordering systems in Europe, that of the UK and that of the EU.

“Varadkar announced that he would not ‘design a border’ for Britain. Instead, he persuaded Brussels to demand that whatever economic arrangements the UK chose after Brexit would not ‘force’ the Irish to erect a customs boundary on the border to ‘defend’ the single market.

“It represented a major ordering demand of the EU over the United Kingdom – exactly the sort of thing Brexit was designed to avoid.”

Mr Simms pointed out how this was a political decision which revolved around empowering Ireland over its British neighbour.

He added: “The Irish, who would participate in setting the rules, would now have a greater say over important parts of the British economy than the British themselves.

“Varadkar appeared smiling at a press conference with Juncker, who was brandishing a card from a family in Dublin that stated, as it subsequently emerged, that ‘for the first time ever Ireland is stronger than Britain’.”

Jean-Claude Juncker is the President of the EU Commission and has repeatedly voiced concerns that the EU may not be able to strike a deal with the UK in time for the Brexit deadline of October 31 – a position adopted by Mr Varadkar.

However, the commentator emphasised how reducing Britain’s power will not necessarily assist Ireland.

As Mr Simms pointed out, Dublin and Brussels will have only “won” this Brexit battle if the UK stays in the customs union or there is a boundary in the Irish Sea.

He also claimed that EU leaders will “lose” if there is a boundary along the Irish border, which will mean “Varadkar’s strategy will have failed”.

Current Prime Minister Boris Johnson has insisted that there will be a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, so that those in Northern Ireland do not feel isolated from the rest of the UK.

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This is not the first time the EU has required Ireland’s support and made promises to win the nation over. The 2008 attempt to propose the Lisbon Treaty needed the backing from all 27 countries before it could be ratified – yet, Ireland rejected it.

Leaked documents revealed French officials wrote letters explaining the EU should try to push Ireland into re-running its referendum.

The EU subsequently promised Ireland that it would not lose its own European commissioner and made ‘declarations’ that the country’s neutrality – and attitude towards abortion – would not be affected by the treaty.

On October 2, 2009, the Irish voted again and the Lisbon Treaty passed.

Reportedly, EU leaders think Brexit will be over by Christmas, and the UK will return to negotiations with the backstop once again – like an “uneaten dinner”, according to Mr Simms.

However, he predicted the reality will be quite different – and it is Ireland who will suffer after believing in the EU’s promises.

“A prolonged clash is more probable, Ireland will be caught in the middle.

“Economic fallout will hit Ireland as much as or more than Britain.”

He continued: “The harsher Brussels is towards London, in fact, the worse it will be for Dublin. Britain’s difficulty will be Ireland’s catastrophe.”

Mr Simms then used President of the European Council Donald Tusk’s remark that there is “a special place in hell” for Brexiteers who do not keep their promises to reflect on how the EU will look after Brexit.

He concluded: “We will then find out whether there is a special place in hell reserved for those Europeans who have made the Irish promises they cannot keep.”

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