House prices: Expert discusses 'interesting' pricing differences

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Economist Roger Bootle said that average house prices defied predictions by rising 10.6 percent during the pandemic despite it triggering a recession that led GDP to shrink by a quarter. This was because Government support schemes kept unemployment low, low interest rates, demand for space and many households acquiring more savings during the pandemic, he said.

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The Eurosceptic commentator wrote that “most forecasters got key economic aspects of the pandemic profoundly wrong”.

He added that “perhaps their most striking mistake concerned the housing market, unsurprisingly”.

Mr Bootle – who was a member of Economists for Brexit – said that currently average mortgage payments are 38 percent of post-tax earning.

This is roughly in line with its long-term average, he explained, suggesting that a house price crash is unlikely as cheap credit is still available.

But if this so-called “affordability ratio” reached 50 percent it would likely trigger a fall in prices, he said.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has already raised interest rates from their record low of 0.1 percent to 0.25 percent.

And with inflation due to hit six percent, many observers claim that they are likely to rise further.

While curbing inflation, the knock-on effect will be that many homeowners will have higher mortgage payments and buyers will be unable to afford to borrow so much.

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This would reduce the “affordability ratio” which could cause prices to stall or fall.

Writing in the Telegraph, Mr Bootle continued: “If interest rates in this country go up by only two percent then, on the affordability measure, we would be entering price correction territory.

“Given the structural changes in the market, perhaps we shouldn’t expect two percent to be a critical number.

“Maybe it should be more like three percent.

“That would probably imply mortgage rates of something like four percent, up from just 1.5 percent now.

“In the wider sweep of our history, this number does not seem fantastical.

“Yet, with current levels of mortgage debt it would surely cause the housing market great difficulty.

“There may not be a correction any time soon but if, as I suspect, interest rates are going to have to rise a fair bit, then a correction is to be expected, if not sooner then later.”

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