Thursday, 2 May 2024

Grudgingly, E.U. Looks Set to Grant Brexit Extension to Jan. 31

BRUSSELS — A day after the departing president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, dismissed the Brexit debacle as a “waste of time and energy,” European officials were confronted on Wednesday with the unpalatable task of deciding on yet another extension.

The European Union has already agreed to two Brexit extensions and the continued standoff in the British Parliament has forced the bloc’s leaders to consider granting a third, despite a mounting annoyance and exhaustion with the process.

On Tuesday, the British Parliament rejected Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s frantic efforts to compress the legislative timetable enough to allow the country to leave the European Union on Oct. 31.

Seeking a new deadline that seemed least likely to make a fuss, European officials were expected to settle on Jan. 31, the date set in British legislation passed recently. With an expedited procedure in place, the bloc could announce its decision as soon as Wednesday.

The president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, who is in charge of convening and coordinating the heads of government from the bloc’s members, said late Tuesday that he would seek the simplest way to get their unanimous support for an extension to Britain’s departure date from the bloc.

Doing this by “written procedure” means that the leaders of the 27 member nations would not need to convene to debate the extension, with much of the process handled by the members’ ambassadors to the European Union. The envoys are scheduled to meet later Wednesday.

Despite fatigue with Brexit, the European Union wants to make sure there are no opportunities for Mr. Johnson and his allies to claim that Brussels is trying to meddle with British politics.

“The E.U. has been trying to avoid a situation in which London can point a finger to Brussels and say it’s all their fault,” said Rosa Balfour of the German Marshall Fund in Brussels. “A January 2020 extension, then, is the least controversial.”

Europe’s leaders had hoped to avoid another extension as they face a range of other major issues, including Turkey’s incursion into northern Syria and lurking trade wars with the United States.

President Emmanuel Macron of France has repeatedly said that he is against another Brexit extension, and on Wednesday, diplomats indicated that they expected their French counterparts to voice concerns about giving London another three months.

Amélie de Montchalin, France’s junior minister for European affairs, said Tuesday evening that France could accept a “purely technical extension” lasting several days, “so that the British Parliament can finish its parliamentary procedure,” but that an extension meant to “rediscuss the deal” was “totally ruled out.”

“We have already wasted too much time, we have found a deal, and now all of our energy must be directed toward enacting it without delay,” she said.

But France was not expected to block the extension to January 2020.

Mujtaba Rahman, who runs the Europe division of Eurasia Group, said, “Macron is kicking up a fuss because he wants to make other leaders aware of the cost to Europe of continually extending the Brexit process.”

“But he’s not going to stand alone and veto the extension,” Mr. Rahman added. “He just wants to make sure the leaders focus on the right challenges and the future of Europe.”

Despite growing consensus within the bloc that it is time for Britain to make good on Brexit and leave, handling this latest twist in the seemingly never-ending saga will require care.

Britain could ostensibly leave before the Jan. 31 deadline, as long as British lawmakers ratify the new Brexit agreement that Mr. Johnson made with his European counterparts in a summit last week. The European Parliament would also have to grant its approval for the deal to pass.

Whether that will be possible depends on how Mr. Johnson plays his next steps.

As European leaders are set to grudgingly agree to the latest extension, there is already growing concern that even this delay may not be enough, Mr. Rahman said.

The complex set of calculations that Mr. Johnson needs to make in London, including the possibility of a new election or a long debate in Parliament and the mushrooming of amendments from lawmakers who dislike the deal, could mean that the three extra months to deliver Brexit could quickly evaporate.

“No one on the E.U. side is fooled for a second that they won’t have to revisit the extension next year,” Mr. Rahman said. “There is a high chance this won’t be long enough, but extending to January 2020 is the least bad of the options on the table right now.”

Aurelien Breeden contributed reporting from Paris.

Matina Stevis-Gridneff is the Brussels correspondent for The New York Times, covering the European Union. She joined The Times after covering East Africa for The Wall Street Journal for five years. @MatinaStevis

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