Ukraine: Mark Galeotti predicts impacts of Russian invasion

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Senior fellow at RUSI Mark Galeotti warned that a potential Russian invasion of its eastern neighbours Ukraine could have disastrous economical repercussions for Britain and the rest of Europe.

But while the inevitable hike in food prices is one thing, the refugee crisis would also deepen if Russian president Vladimir Putin sets his heart on a full-scale incursion.

However the expert ruled out an attack on NATO as Russia do not have the equipments for it while claiming that they are aware of coming up short as NATO is “stronger”.

Speaking to LBC, Mr Galeotti predicts the ramifications to be devastating in the event of a war.

He said: “Food prices are gonna go up because Ukraine is a major agricultural producer.

“Energy prices may go up even further because of constrictions to gas suppliers.

“There’s gonna be refugees, there could be tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, some people even say millions spilling into Europe and obviously all the way across Europe.

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“And more broadly, the sanctions which we imposed they are gonna have costs for us as well and they’re gonna push Russia towards China.

“If the war really kicks off there will be impacts for us as well.

“Look, if this starts actually going into a full-scale invasion, and we got to remember, the Russians do have military options short of that.

“But if we get the invasion that we’re being promised I don’t think it’s gonna spill out into NATO countries.”

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He claimed that all Russia want now is a legitimate “excuse” to launch an attack so that they can claim that it was Ukraine who instigated the war.

And if Mr Putin is really intent on achieving something he will “manufacture his own excuse” and get his way.

He said: “President Zelenskyy is fully aware of the fact that the Russians are desperate for some kind of excuse to be able to portray the Ukrainians as being the aggressors.

“He has been very, very clear about the need not to get sucked into artillery jewels and the like.

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“Of course when it comes down to it, we’ve also seen explosions in Donetsk which were blamed on Ukrainian sabotage but which were probably simply set by the rebel forces there.

“If Putin is determined then he will simply manufacture his own excuse.

“But at least the Ukrainians are clearly aware of what kind of antagonist they are up against. “

To give a measure of the gravity of a war between Russia and Ukraine, Boris Johnson declared it would be the “biggest in Europe” since World War II, urging everyone to “understand the sheer cost in human life” that would ensue as a result.

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