Monday, 25 Nov 2024

EU’s last Brexit compromise REVEALED: No deal exit certain if fresh offer to new PM fails

EU diplomats and officials are on manoeuvres to deliver one last compromise to the next British prime minister in the hope of salvaging Theresa May’s hated Brexit deal. Plans are being drawn up to make the controversial backstop insurance measure to avoid a hard Irish border time-limited to appease Brexiteers in Westminster. EU sources have conceded there is room for such a time limit to be applied as long as the mechanism is dressed up entirely different. This latest concession comes after Brussels has spent months refusing to consider such a proposal.

One source close to the negotiations said the provision could come in the form of a “re-evaluation clause” that would allow the next prime minister to kickstart the formal exit process.

A “timetable” is also being considered, to schedule the introduction of alternative arrangements to the backstop throughout the transition period, during which Britain remains inside the single market and customs union.

Changes to Mrs May’s Brexit deal will largely come inside the political declaration, which sets out the basis for negotiations on the UK’s future relationship with the EU, or as a bolt-on to the withdrawal deal, to make it appear the document has not be reopened.

But diplomats have subtly hinted that extra text could be added to the backstop itself, to make reference to the concession.

In order for the EU to strike such a deal, Ireland would have to show they support the changes.

EU leaders will also need to be convinced the concession will definitely deliver a Westminster majority.

For Brussels this will come as the final negotiation, with failure to reach an agreement resulting in a no deal Brexit.

EU diplomats want the next prime minister to forget making a straight dash for Brussels and instead focus on holding talks with Dublin, Berlin and Paris.

Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel and Leo Varadkar are expected to welcome them with “open arms” if they can prove they can realistically deliver a majority for a deal.

Brussels fears the talks could be sunk as early as the Conservative Party conference at the end of September, however, if the new Tory leader decides to give a “drastic speech” or make promises they can’t deliver.

The EU will therefore resist talks in July in order to keep negotiations and relations on track.

One diplomat said: “Talks in July with renegotiations again afterwards? Not before the party conferences, forget it.

“The new prime minister has one shot to make a deal work. They would be best advised not blowing it on short-term political gain.”

EU capitals instead want the final flashpoint to come at the October European Council summit, which falls just 13 days before Britain’s scheduled departure.

Diplomats believe this will increase the “time pressure” on both sides of the negotiating table, ultimately leading to a compromise that will satisfy both parties.

If they can’t strike a deal, the EU will pursue no deal as attitudes towards offering a third Brexit delay across the bloc harden.

A source said: “It is the final chance, after that it is no deal if they fail to make it work.”

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