England’s Covid transmission rate has risen back towards 1 in the week after the latest relaxation of lockdown measures, latest figures show.

The R value is now between 0.8 and 1, up from 0.8 to 0.9 the week before, according to government statistics.

The figures suggest the disease is still receding but that England now has less wiggle room when it comes to lifting more measures.

Experts say that while there is no reason to fear a second wave just yet, the virus looks less and less likely to disappear by winter.

The R value for the whole of the UK has remained unchanged at 0.7 to 0.9.

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An R value of 0.8 to 1 means that every 10 people infected will on average go on to infect between 8 to 10 more people.

An R value below 1 means the disease is receding although it does not show how quickly an outbreak is moving in any direction.

In contrast the growth rate reflects how fast the number of infections is changing day-to-day.

The UK-wide growth rate of infections is now at -5 per cent to -2 per cent per day. For England it stands at -4 per cent to -1 per cent.

The growth rate figures mean the country’s case load is still shrinking, albeit a little more slowly in England.

The devolved administrations have generally been more cautious towards lifting restrictions, particularly in Scotland and Wales.

There remains some variation between different regions but the changes generally indicated a slight rise in the growth rate.

In the East of England, the growth rate rose from between minus 5 per cent to 0 per cent last week to between minus 4 per cent and plus 1 per cent this week.

In London, the growth rate is between minus 5 per cent and plus 1 per cent, compared to between minus 4 per cent and plus 2 per cent last week.

In the South West, the growth rate dropped from between minus 7 per cent and plus 2 per cent to between minus 6 per cent and plus 1 per cent.

All the figures are given in ranges because of the difficulty in accurately estimating the spread of the disease.

The government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), which publishes the data, said that when case numbers fall to low levels then ‘estimates of R and the growth rate become insufficiently robust to inform policy decisions’.

It added: ‘When case numbers are low uncertainty increases and fluctuations in the data can have a significant impact on the estimates.

‘Furthermore, when there is a significant amount of variability across a region, for example due to a local outbreak, then a single average doesn’t accurately reflect the way infections are changing throughout the region.’

Professor James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, said: ‘That the number of cases is falling slightly is to be welcomed.

‘This suggests, that so far, relaxation of the lockdown has not precipitated a second wave.

‘It has to be emphasised that no one knows what the safe level of relaxation is for the UK and there is a delay between action and consequence. The virus is here and we could easily see a surge in cases if a mistake is made.’

He added: ‘These numbers also tell us that we are unlikely to eliminate the virus from the UK before the winter.

‘In any event the virus has become global, without a vaccine we have to plan for its presence.

‘It seems likely that the onset of colder weather will see the virus begin to spread more rapidly.

‘We have a short breathing space to get ourselves organised to cope with the winter.’

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