The UK’s energy price cap could swell more than threefold come spring due to crippling gas shortages inflicted by Russia, analysts have warned.

Ofgem’s ceiling on fuel and electricity bills – currently set to the equivalent of £1,971 a year for the average household – is already set to jump by more than 80% to £3,549 in October.

Based on current trends, it is likely to double from than figure to £7,263 when the cap is reviewed in April, according to consultants Auxilione.

The cap is based on highly volatile wholesale market prices, which means forecasts made months ahead have a wide margin of error.

But numerous firms have predicted April’s increase will hit £5,800 or more, a staggering blow for millions who are already struggling to stretch their budgets.

The government has pledged £1,200 in ‘extra support’ for lower-income households, making up around one-quarter of all households.

All bill-payers will receive a £400 discount on energy bills during the toughest winter months.

But experts say this will barely make a dent for most families, with MoneySavingExperts’ Martin Lewis warning ‘people will die’ if they don’t receive more aid.

The government has effectively admitted it wants to announce further interventions but can’t due to the Tory leadership contest between Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss.

Civil servants are working to ‘ensure that any additional support or commitments on cost of living can be delivered as quickly as possible when the new Prime Minister is in place’, a spokesperson said on Friday.

Both candidates have suggested they will prioritise policies that put more money in people’s pockets, ignoring or rejecting calls to freeze the energy price cap.

The energy price cap: How does it work and why isn’t it frozen?

Set by the independent regulator Ofgem, the cap is calculated to limit how much profit suppliers can make from households.

Since the price suppliers pay on the wholesale market can vary, this means the maximum amount they can charge families can also vary.

Although it’s not fixed, the cap still protects consumers from the market to some extent: wholesale prices are now 10 times higher than before the crisis, while bills have risen far less.

Ofgem’s ability to change the cap is meant to stop suppliers going bust in droves, which would force the government to choose between huge taxpayer-funded bailouts or disruption to the country’s energy supplies.

But experts are divided over where to strike the balance between the health of the suppliers and the prices paid by customers.

Some argue the cap has worsened inflation as it stops suppliers from charging more when raw energy prices are lower to create a ‘buffer’ which they can dip into to keep bills steady when prices rise.

This problem was widely blamed for the collapse of Bulb, whose 1.6 million customers are being looked after by a government-backed adminsitration.

The policy also limits energy bills for everyone regardless of income, meaning it starves suppliers of revenue from high earners who could afford to pay more.

Others say Ofgem has put too much emphasis on market stability, with Martin Lewis accusing it of ‘selling consumers down the river’ by limiting companies’ ability to compete with each other in offering bargain deals.

The regulator came under renewed fire in August after the resignation of board director Christine Farnish, who accused her employer of giving ‘too much benefit to companies at the expense of consumers’.

It’s thought she objected to a change in the price cap calculation that would allow companies to charge customers more if they secure more future energy supplies in advance.

Economists widely agree the recent spike in energy prices can be traced to a post-Covid demand boom which was supercharged by a plunge in gas supplies following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Current forecasts indicate energy bills and overall inflation will begin to fall in the second half of 2023 and return to normal levels within two years.

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