Sir John Curtice praised the Tories for gaining a significant proportion of the Leave vote and revealed the party is currently on track to secure a majority government. However, the polling guru warned Labour could still dramatically increase their vote share due to over 20% of the Remain vote currently being held by the Liberal Democrats.   

He said: “We do have to bear in mind that probably Boris Johnson needs a bit more than a six point lead before we say yeah he’s clearly all home and dry.

“If the lead is indeed around 10 points he is not so far ahead from where he needs to be to get a majority for us to be sure that he has got it in the bag.

“Again we just do have to remember that this is essentially a binary election.

“In which either Boris Johnson gets a majority in which case Brexit should happen or he fails to get a majority.

“Then there is a high probability that we will get a minority Labour administration charged with the task of applying for an extension and going for a second referendum.

“It is whether or not the Conservatives get a majority or not that matters.

“Not whether they have more seats than Labour.

“The other thing, then, of course, that we do have to bear in mind is that the Conservatives do now seemed to have pretty much taken all the juice out of the Brexit orange.

“There is only around six or seven percent of the Leave vote left in the hands of the Brexit Party.

“Where as in contrast, there is still potentially at least over 20 percent of the Remain vote in the hands of the Liberal Democrats

“Therefore given that the Labour Party have so far demonstrated a non trivial degree of successes in squeezing that vote maybe they could squeeze it further.

“In other words there is the potential for Labour to continue to make the progress it’s been making in this campaign at the expense of the Liberal Democrats.”

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The multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) poll is a recently-developed polling method and is based on more than 100,000 interviews over seven days.

An MRP poll was the only survey conducted ahead of the 2017 election which accurately forecast a hung parliament.

According to the latest MRP poll, the Tories will end up with a total of 359 seats, followed by Labour with 211 and the Lib Dems in third with 13 seats.

Nigel Farage will be disappointed to see the poll leaves the Brexit Party with no seats at all.

The results will be particularly devastating for the Labour Party if they manifest, seeing its seat share drop from 262 seats in the 2017 election, a 51-seat loss.

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