England’s Covid-19 R rate has risen to as high as 1.1 but the pandemic is still shrinking nationally, official figures suggest.

The crucial number now stands at between 0.8 and 1.1, according to the latest Government estimate.

It was last reported to be between 0.8 and 1.0 on April 23.

R represents the average number of people each Covid-19 positive person goes on to infect.

When the figure is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially, but when it is below 1, it means the epidemic is shrinking.

An R value between 0.8 and 1.1 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 8 and 11 other people.

Sage said that although the R rate spans 1 for England and some individual regions, this does not necessarily mean R is definitively above 1 and that the epidemic is increasing, just that the uncertainty means it cannot be ruled out.

Deaths, cases and hospital admissions are continuing to fall across the country, suggesting the epidemic is shrinking.

Official figures show England’s growth rate is between -4% and -1%, meaning that the number of new infections is shrinking by between 1% and 4% every day.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show cases have fallen sharply for a third week in a row.

The estimated proportion of people infected with Covid is now at its lowest level since September, when one in 1,400 people were infected.

The ONS said that an estimated 1 in 1,010 people in England had Covid-19 in the week ending April 24, compared to 1 in 610 a week earlier.

Professor Paul Hunter Professor in Medicine, The Norwich School of Medicine, University of East Anglia said that this week’s ONS data is particularly important as this is when the impact of the most recent loosening of restrictions would be seen in the data.

He said: ‘This would be the first week when there would be any evidence that the relaxation of the 12th April would have had a negative impact on the epidemic. 

‘That there is in fact no evidence of an increased transmission risk is reassuring that for the time being at least it looks like the current Road map is still on target.’

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said yesterday that England is on track for the next stage of lifting the lockdown restrictions.

Indoor service in pubs and restaurants will be allowed from May 17, when groups of six can also mix indoors and foreign travel may be possible.

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