Patrick Vallance warns coronavirus deaths will still rise

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Covid cases, hospitalisations and deaths are not expected to peak until mid-August at the earliest which will be around a month after the final stage of lockdown easing on July 19. This surge is expected to be driven by unvaccinated younger people. Government scientific advisers expect pressure on health services to be acute in the winter as a result of a combination of Covid and flu, but it will not be as severe as last year.

Global deaths rose for the first time in nine weeks – rising three percent after nine straight weeks of decline.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) reported cases rose by 10 percent to nearly three million.

The WHO warned more variants could emerge and “coupled with the relaxation and inappropriate use of public health and social measures and increased social mobility and mixing”.

The organisation added more countries could see higher cases, hospitalisations and deaths.

There have been 5.2 million confirmed cases of coronavirus in the UK since the pandemic began.

More than 128,500 people have died within 28 days of a positive Covid test according to Government figures.

More than 66.7 percent of the adult population have been fully vaccinated as of Wednesday, July 14.

There were 49 deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported on this day – of which 36 were in England, 11 in Scotland, one in Northern Ireland and one in Wales.

Recent data suggests the vaccination programme has reduced hospital admissions and deaths.

Now less than one in 1,000 infections are now estimated to result in death which is compared to one in 60 during last winter.

In total, there were 10,156 deaths registered in the week to July 2, which is more than four percent below the five-year average.

There have now been more deaths involving Covid than “excess” deaths, which means non-Covid deaths must be below usual levels.

This could be the result of a milder flu season, resulting from less travel and more social distancing.

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There has been a large rise in deaths related to Covid in the UK according to the rolling seven-day average from Our World in Data.

The data revealed new deaths per one million rose from 0.34 to 0.49 from July 7 to 14.

This is an absolute change of 0.15 and a relative change of 44 – however, the UK does not have the worst seven-day death rate.

Russia recorded the highest number of deaths over the past seven days at 34.93 per one million, compared to the UK’s 3.42.

More vaccinated people are now dying of Covid than unvaccinated people according to a recent report from Public Health England.

The PHE report revealed 163 of the 257 people, equating 63.4 percent, who died within 28 days of a positive COVID test between February 1 and June 21, had received at least one dose of the vaccine.

At first glance, this may seem alarming, but it is exactly as would be expected.

This is because the risk of dying from Covid doubles roughly every seven years older a patient.

But if a person is unvaccinated this figure increases even further – with an unvaccinated 70-year-old up to 32 times more likely to die after contracting coronavirus than an unvaccinated 35-year-old.

Speaking from the West Midlands on Thursday ahead of the final stage of lockdown easing on Monday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned Britons to remain cautious.

He said: “I wish I could say from Monday we could throw caution to the wind and behave exactly as we did before we’d ever heard of COVID,” he said, admitting this could not happen.

“But what I can say is that if we are careful and we continue to respect this disease and its continuing menace then it’s highly probable… the worst of the pandemic is behind us.”

The PM added England faces “difficult days and weeks ahead” but the Covid jab programme is important in continuing to build a “wall of vaccine immunity” and thus protect lives and the NHS.

Virologist and professor of molecular medicine Martin Michaelis at the University of Kent said Covid deaths will likely surge further in the wake of lockdown easing.

Professor Michaelis told Express.co.uk: “Nevertheless, we currently already have about 500 COVID-19 hospitalisations per day and expect to see 2,000 or even more daily hospitalisations in August.

“With such numbers, it is not unlikely that we will see hundreds of daily COVID-19 deaths during the height of the wave.

“Notably, this will be the first natural wave, as there are no formal mitigation measures or even lockdowns planned.

“Hence, the wave is expected to last longer than the previous ones, and we may see the maximum numbers of cases, hospitalisations, and deaths for a period of six to eight weeks.”

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