A study by the University of Cambridge looked at how NHS trusts in different regions of England are coping with the influx of COVID-19 patients and predicted how their ICU units would handle further strain. The study predicted five out of the seven regions would have more patients than they can handle within two weeks.

The Midlands, East Anglia, South West, South East and London are on track to run short within 14 days, whit the capital forecast to be the first.
Supply of beds in North East & Yorkshire and North West commissioning regions would last longer, researchers said.
The paper, called “Forecasting ultra-early intensive care strain from COVID-19 in England” and published online has been reviewed by peers.
The shocking predictions come as a nurse told of how hospital staff are already having to ration care in an ICU unit badly hit by the coronavirus crisis.

The senior nurse works at Northwick Park Hospital in Harrow.

The west London hospital was the first to declare a critical incident due to the surge in demand for service amid coronavirus.

The North West University Healthcare NHS Trust, which manages the hospital, is the country’s hardest-hit.

A total of 21 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 at the two major hospitals controlled by the authority have died since Friday.

Speaking anonymously, the nurse laid bare the grim reality facing staff on the frontline.

She said: “We’re already in an Italy situation, where the doctors are deciding who should be put on the ventilators and who should not.

“Most of the people who passed away have been elderly with various comorbidities but we also have younger people struggling to breathe and they will sometimes get the ventilators first.

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“Many of our colleagues are falling ill with flu-like symptoms, but they still come into work because otherwise who will look after the patients?

“The very old ones die even with the ventilator. Some of them are conscious, but others are so confused because of the lack of oxygen. All we can do is try and make them comfortable.”

A spokesman for the trust said healthcare workers were not running out of ventilators for critically ill patients.

But he admitted staff were working at pace to add more beds to hospitals while some retrain as ICU nurses.

During Tuesday’s daily press conference, Health Secretary Matt Hancock announced plans to build at 4,000 bed makeshift hospital to cope with the crisis in the capital.

The ExCel conference centre in east London will be turned into a field hospital.

The NHS Nightingale Hospital is expected to be up and running by next week.

It will initially consist of about 500 beds.

The centre has in the past been used for Crufts and ComicCon.

He also said 250,000 NHS volunteers were needed across the country as the epidemic worsens and encouraged people to sign up.

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