Coronavirus: How pandemic could end hopes of US-UK trade deal for good
If the crisis continues into late this year, the US may have to call off their 2020 presidential election. Just this week, President Donald Trump ‒ who is seeking re-election in November ‒ warned Americans to avoid gatherings of over 10 people. During an election, this would not be possible as there are often long queues of people waiting to cast their ballot.
What’s more, both Mr Trump and his two potential Democratic rivals Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders have had to cancel large rallies.
However, if the election is cancelled, the president is not allowed to just continue past the end of their term ‒ instead there is a line of succession as to who should take over next.
Mr Johnson has consistently claimed the UK will be looking at a “fantastic” trade deal with the US post-Brexit, but he may have been basing this on his good relationship with Mr Trump.
Mr Trump appeared to endorse Mr Johnson for the leadership last year saying he would be an “excellent” choice.
He also insisted that Mr Johnson is “not going anywhere” after the Supreme Court ruled his prorogation of Parliament as unlawful.
Meanwhile, Mr Johnson has defended the President in response to attacks from opposition MPs, and met with him during a state visit last year.
Most importantly, Mr Trump is a supporter of Brexit, which likely boosted Mr Johnson’s confidence that he would make a trade deal work.
The President said in 2017 that he thought the UK was “so smart in getting out”, adding: “I think you’re doing great.
“Trump said Brexit is going to happen, and it happened. Everybody thought I was crazy.
“Obama said ‘They’ll go to the back of the line,’ and then had to retract that statement.”
He even compared the Brexit result to his own election win.
If Mr Trump ends up having to cancel the November election and one is not held before January 20, 2021, his term will end and Mr Johnson will be having to deal with a surprise new president.
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The line of succession mandates that if the president steps down, the vice president takes over ‒ but Mike Pence’s term will end at the same time.
The next person in the line of succession is the Speaker of the House of Representatives, currently Nancy Pelosi, but her term will also be ending, as members of the House are only elected for a two year stint.
Fourth in line is the President Pro Tempore of the Senate, who is the senior-most member of the majority party, currently Chuck Grassley.
However, come November, 35 senators are up for election ‒ 23 Republicans and 12 Democrats.
If no election can be held, these senators’ terms expire leaving a Democratic majority in the Senate and the senior-most member of that party would be Patrick Leahy.
That said, vacant Senate seats can be filled by appointment by the state governor and if enough Republican governors appoint Republicans to the Senate, this could flip the Senate back to the GOP.
Democrats likely hold enough governorships to prevent this happening, but again, some of their terms will be ending.
Nevertheless, because this is a completely unprecedented situation, this succession law could be up going to the courts for an official interpretation.
Either way, the US would almost certainly be inaugurating either President Grassley or President Leahy, instead of inviting Mr Trump back for another four years in the White House.
Mr Grassley has generally been quite positive about Brexit, signing a pledge last year to back Britain after it leaves the EU.
The letter promised to continue the “unwavering” special relationship between the US and the UK and called for a new bilateral trade agreement between them.
When the UK left the EU on January 31, Mr Grassley released a statement that claimed the US was “ready to negotiate a trade agreement with the U that will further strengthen our alliance and integrate our economies”.
On the other hand, if Mr Leahy were to take the presidency, prospects of a deal may not be so rosy.
Mr Leahy was part of a group of Democratic senators who produced a report on Russia’s attempts to influence British democracy.
The report read: “Investigative journalists have also raised questions about the sources of sudden and possibly illicit wealth that may have been directed to support the Brexit ‘Leave’ campaign.”
This suggests at least some level of hostility towards Brexit from Mr Leahy, although not much is known about his personal beliefs on the issue.
Nevertheless, the very prospect of Mr Trump not continuing past his first term as president would throw a spanner into the works of Mr Johnson’s plans for a US-UK trade deal.
His good relationship with Mr Trump might be hard to replicate with whoever takes over.
If coronavirus causes the election to be cancelled, this makes it impossible for Mr Trump to continue, plus there is also the possibility it goes ahead but he loses to Joe Biden, who is likely to win the Democratic nomination.
In either situation, Mr Johnson’s relationship with the president, as well as his overwhelming support for Brexit, will be useless in the coming negotiations.
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