England’s contact tracing system is reaching its lowest percentage of people since it was launched, according to new figures.

The news will raise fears that the system, which works best when cases are at lower levels, can no longer act as a brake on the outbreak.

During the week ending 7 October, Test and Trace reached 62.6% of close contacts of people who tested positive for COVID-19 in England.

The previous week, Test and Trace reached 69.5% of contacts.

For cases handled by local health protection teams, 97.7% of contacts were reached and asked to self-isolate in the week to 7 October.

And for those handled either online or by call centres, 57.6% of close contacts were reached and asked to self-isolate.

The figures show that positive cases continued to rise, with 89,874 people testing positive for coronavirus in England between 1 October and 7 October, a rise of 64% on the previous week.

This marks the highest weekly number since the Test and Trace scheme was launched in May.

There has been a small improvement in turnaround times for test results.

In the week ending 7 October, 32.6% of people who were tested for COVID-19 at a regional site, local site or mobile testing unit in England received their results within 24 hours, up from 27.4% the week before.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson had previously promised that all coronavirus tests would be “turned around” with 24 hours by the end of June.

Analysis: The situation may be even more concerning

Test and Trace has had several high-profile struggles, so this latest drop in the number of contacts it is reaching will no doubt be taken as another sign of its failings.

Unfortunately, the situation may be even more concerning.

Contact tracing works best when levels of prevalence are relatively low. Even if it is working at peak efficiency, it is not designed to hold back an outbreak that is spreading very quickly.

Despite all the money and hope invested in it, these figures suggest that contact tracing may no longer be able to put a brake on the epidemic.

It is possible that Test and Trace was under special pressure in the first week of October, thanks to the Excel error which meant around 11,000 positive cases were suddenly transferred into the system.

But even at that point, contact tracers were already feeling the strain.

“Four weeks ago we would have been following up single cases visiting hospitality,” one told me. “Two weeks ago that became staff cases only.

“Now there are days when we can’t follow up multiple staff cases unless they are vulnerable settings such as health or social care or critical national infrastructure.”

With cases continuing to rise rapidly, Test and Trace may be reaching the limits of its capacity. That can only mean one thing: restrictions on movement are coming, quite possibly with some speed.

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