Labour Party’s hopes for a so-called “youthquake” at the upcoming 12 December election have been downplayed by a leading polling expert. Professor Ed Fieldhouse, who has analysed voter registration data, told Nick Robinson turnout among young voters is likely to be low. The Professor of Politics at Manchester University also hit back at claims that a game-changing youthquake took place in the 2017 general election.

Labour had been pinning their election hopes on a surge among young voters disrupting the electoral playing field.

However, Professor Fieldhouse, who leads the British Election Study, dismissed this strategy.

He said: “It is very hard to estimate how many young people will vote or not vote, because the polls tend to overrepresent voters compard to non-voters in their samples.”

Robinson pointed out that the polling expert had previously debunked claims of a massive youth turnout at the 2017 election. 

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In 2017, Labour’s surprise election performance was tied to an alleged youthquake, with many younger voters turning out to back Jeremy Corbyn.

The word youthquake became so commonplace that it was actually the Oxford English Dictionary’s word of the year in 2017.

However, the Manchester University professor said that this claim of a game-changing electoral shift had been overestimated. 

Professor Fieldhouse explained: “Last time, despite many reports that voting turnout for young voters was up to around 72 percent, it was more likely closer to 50 percent.

“It was much, much lower. It was far lower than most people think and there’s no reason to believe anything has changed.”

The estimate of 40 – 50 percent turnout among the country’s youngest voters is about the same as the previous election in 2015.

This is compared to the huge 80 percent of voters aged 70 years old and above.

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However, the polling professor did admit that age was still a strong predictor of party preference.

He pointed out that young voters disproportionately voted Labour. 

Professor Fieldhouse also brought up the issue of non-voters, claiming that in more than one in five seats in 2017 there were so many non-voters they outnumbered the people who voted for the winning MP.

The deadline to register to vote for the 2019 general election is Tuesday 26 November.

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