Chukka Umunna and Anna Soubry on track to lose seats after defecting
Luciana Berger and Chucka Umunna are among the new Liberal Democrat MPs set to lose their seats in the general election, according to the latest projection poll.
A survey conducted by YouGov for The Times predicts the spate of parliamentary candidates who switched to Jo Swinson’s pro-remain party will not win in their constituencies on December 12.
The analysis highlighted four former Tories said to be trailing behind their competition, including Sarah Wollaston, who is 19 points behind the Conservatives in Totnes.
Philip Lee – who infamously defected midway through a Boris Johnson speech, is also down 10 points, while Sam Gyimah is eight points behind in Kensington.
Three Labour defectors are also shown as struggling, according to the polls.
Veteran MP Frank Field, who is running as the Social Justice Party candidate in Birkenhead, is forecast to lose after having held the seat for Labour since 1979, according to YouGov.
Chuka Umunna, who held his Labour seat in Streatham for nine years, is said to be 13 points behind the Conservative candidate in Cities of London and Westminster.
The former Labour and Change UK MP joined his third party of the year in June and was accused of being ‘opportunistic’ when he announced switching constituencies to run as a Lib Dem MP.
The Westminster constituency was considered a safe Tory seat until the snap election of 2017, when Conservative MP Mark Field was only able to defend his seat with a slim 4,000 majority over Labour.
People in the area voted overwhelmingly to leave, and given Jo Swinson’s promise to cancel Brexit, it was hoped the Lib Dems could make headway in the constituency.
In a further blow to Ms Swinson, Luciana Berger, who has held her Liverpool Wavertree seat since 2010, is currently 18 points down in Finchley and Golders.
She joined the the party in September and said she was switching seats ‘for family reasons’.
Former senior Tory Anna Soubry, who is running as an independent MP, is also predicted to lose her seat in Broxtowe, which she has held since the 2010 election.
YouGov said its methods for the poll used aggregated data and projections which may not reflect specific localised factors in its analysis.
The same poll said the Conservatives are on course for a majority of 68 seats.
The seat-by-seat forecast suggests Boris Johnson’s party will take 359 seats to Labour’s 211, with the SNP on 43 and the Lib Dems 13.
The YouGov methodology is credited as being one of the few in the industry which correctly predicted the outcome of the 2017 election, when many other pollsters were left red-faced.
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