It’s less than nine weeks away… but what are the chances of a no-deal Brexit on October 31?

Here are the four most likely outcomes:

1. No deal:

The UK and EU are determined not to relent in a dangerous game of chicken. Brussels says Boris Johnson’s move to muzzle parliament is more evidence that he is not serious about negotiations. A crash-out will hurt everybody. But barring anything else being cobbled together at  five-to-midnight, it is what will happen. Chances: 4/5

2. Yet another extension:

This needs an application from London and unanimous approval by all member states. Mr Johnson would look very small seeking more time given all his guff. And EU governments need a very good reason – like a UK general election or new referendum – to overcome their reticence. Timing is against this one. The election may come after Brexit happens. Chances: 2/5

3. Bye-bye Boris:

If anti-deal MPs in all parties cannot somehow rush in a legislative ban, then they will have to move a no-confidence motion in Mr Johnson. The “ABBJ team” is very divided on this and it is a hard one for Tory rebels to oust their own leader from office. Chances: 1/5

4. Enter the judges:

Three law cases are pending in London, Scotland and Belfast seeking to block no deal. These may well end up before the UK Supreme Court. Former UK prime minister John Major is party to the London case.

Judges are loath to butt into politics – but might. Chances: 2/5

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