The Prime Minister needs 320 votes from MPs for his deal to pass through the House of Commons and successfully set the UK free from the EU by October 31. According to several sources Mr Johnson is tantalisingly close to securing the number; shy by just four votes.

Sam Coates, Sky News’ Deputy Political Editor, shared with his followers last night after hours of number crunching and political loyalty pondering an idea of how MPs would vote.

The close nature of the vote rests in the fact that Mr Johnson’s Government holds no majority in Parliament, leaving him with only 287 voting Conservative MPs.

So far, no Brexiteer has indicated that they will vote against the deal, although speculators say there may be one or two who will secretly plot against the Prime Minister.

Though, if all Tory MPs support their party leader, Mr Johnson looks to have a clean 287 vote sweep, leaving 33 votes to be sucked up elsewhere.

The Prime Minister cannot rely on mustering up the 10 votes the DUP would once have issued gratis, as it has emphatically rejected the new Brexit plan on the basis that it gives too many concessions on customs checks at points of entry into Northern Ireland.

Mr Johnson’s Brexit fate now hangs by the thread of opinion on either side of the rebel groups.

The Tory party has 23 rebels who previously plotted against Mr Johnson’s attempts to push through a no deal Brexit.

Of those 23, 21 were kicked out of the Tory party by the Prime Minister.

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In order to get his deal through the commons, Mr Johnson needs votes from three groups.

The 20 former Tory rebels who lost the whips but have yet to defect.

The 19 sitting Labour MPs who have previously indicated they might back Brexit deal should it tick the right boxes.

And, a handful of former Labour MPs currently sitting as independents.

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Mr Johnson’s best shot, say several political pundits, is with the Tory rebels who may prove more susceptible to being squeezed into a Conservatively funnelled Brexit deal.

There were initial suggestions that as many as 12 people would abstain from voting, but reports that materialised later on Thursday morning put that number at eight.

The news of a deal, however, caused this number to slide either way throughout the afternoon – so a definite figure is almost impossible to agree on.

Mood in favour of Mr Johnson’s deal was bolstered when members of the European Research Group displayed a lack of substantial resistance to the news and failed to show any sign of following in the steps of the DUP.

According to Sky News, out of the 21 rebels – excluding Sam Gymiah but including Amber Rudd – it looks like just three or four are likely to vote against the Government’s deal.

This totals the “for” camp to around 304 – still 16 short.

Sky News speculates that the total of votes for the deal will add up to 316.

The next 30 hours will see immense pressure from the Government to amass support for its deal in time for the October 19 deadline.

It is unclear how Labour will tackle the conundrum they are faced with, as Keir Starmer, Shadow Brexit Secretary, said the party will oppose the deal.

He cited Labour’s fears over the safety of workers and the environment in any new deal.

As well as this, the chance for the UK to move further away from the EU’s regulations in the future is highly unfavourable in the eyes of the opposition.

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