As the election day fast approaches, Sir John Curtice revealed his new prediction to LBC’s Shelagh Fogarty. At the beginning of the camapign period, the polling expert had said that he thought there would be “a record number” of non-Conservative and non-Labour MPs than ever before in the House of Commons. However, as the Liberal Democrats have begun to trend badly, Sir John decided to update his thoughts.

He told Ms Fogarty that there “might still be” a record number of third party MPs.

However, he said: “It’s not looking as bright as it once did, not least primarily because of the Liberal Democrats.

“In Scotland, the polling evidence that we have is indeed that the SNP are likely to make gains, maybe not quite so many as they once thought. Somewhere between 40 and 42/43 still seems to be quite possible.

“The crucial question will be how well the Liberal Democrats do.”

Sir John continued: “To give you some idea, the record number of third party MPs is 88.

“If you were to take the polls at the moment and make some simple assumptions about what they might mean, we might be slightly below that figure. We might be 82.

“It will frankly depend on whether the Liberal Democrats do slightly better than we expect or not.

“But certainly the decline of the Liberal Democrats is one reason why that prediction isn’t quite so good now as it was four weeks ago.”

As for the majority of parliament, Sir John was confident in Boris Johnson’s chances.

He said: “If the polls are at all right, there is about a 70 percent chance the Conservatives will get the overall majority they need.

“The 10-point lead they currently have in the polls will be adequate if it translates to the ballot boxes.”

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The polling expert added: “But if the lead turns out not to be more than six percent, then we get into a world where there is a 50 percent chance of a hung parliament.

“That is because Boris Johnson has got to get a majority if he’s going to get his Withdrawal Agreement through – and probably even if he’s going to remain Prime Minister.

“He’s not sufficiently far ahead of where he needs to be that he can assume it’s in the bag.

“But the 10-point lead is an average figure. Some polls give a bigger lead and if that’s the case, then frankly there is nothing much for the Tories to worry about.

“But conversely, there are a couple of other polls which gives them a six- or seven-point lead and if they prove to be closer to the truth, then this is potentially a tight election so far as Boris Johnson’s future is concerned.”

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