Ukraine: Putin 'looking for escape route' says Keith Kellogg

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Putin’s actions in Ukraine have echoed far into the west and backfired in the east, with growing dissatisfaction in Russia defined by public demonstrators. Earlier today, the premier hosted an event to celebrate his capture of Crimea in 2014 at Moscow’s Luzhniki stadium, where onlookers were greeted by a speech praising Russian military “unity”. While Russian officials claimed crowds numbered 200,000 people, some in attendance said they had to take part and suggested public opinion has turned against him.

Who could replace Vladimir Putin?

Putin has retained an iron grip on the Russian legislature since 1999 as either president or prime minister, and he is currently in his second consecutive term of the former since 2012.

His decades-long reign has been categorised by crackdowns on political opponents, and international observers have categorised elections as unfair.

These facts mean that a successor who doesn’t carry Putin’s central legacy is unlikely, and there are several potential candidates.

Mikhail Mishustin

Should circumstance force Putin to step down, his immediate replacement would be Mikhail Mishustin.

Mishustin currently serves as the prime minister of Russia as Putin’s second in command.

He was nominated to follow Dmitry Medvedev by Putin in 2020 and chairs the Russian Federation’s central government.

Sergei Sobyanin

The current mayor of Moscow is a fringe ally of Putin currently not within the Russian premier’s inner circle.

But he already mirrors him in many ways, with a history of protest busting via capital police.

He has also banned pride parades in the city, echoing efforts by the Putin regime to scale back LGBT rights.

Sergei Shoigu

As Putin’s defence minister, Shoigu is currently helping coordinate the invasion of Ukraine.

While he is carrying out the commander-in-chief’s wishes, the Russian military primarily follows his demands filtered down from the top.

He could, theoretically, use this power to usurp Putin in a coup and replace him, but as a member of his inner circle, this is increasingly unlikely.

Nikolai Patrushev

Another potential coup sponsor, Patrushev has served as chief of Russia’s security council since 2008.

Again, he commands another pivotal arm of the Russian state, the Federal Security Service (FSB).

The FSB succeeded the KGB in 1991 and oversees domestic security arrangements.

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