Russia: Reaction 'stronger than Putin expected' says Ricketts

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The whole world is currently watching Ukraine, where Mr Putin has built up 100,000 Russian troops on its border. There are mounting fears that Moscow will launch an invasion of the country, which sits right on Europe’s doorstep. Mr Putin has refused to stand down his troops, demanding that NATO refuse to admit Ukraine into the defensive alliance.

But defence expert Shashank Joshi has said that Mr Putin may actually have other intentions, pointing to the Russian forces currently “streaming into Belarus”.

Mr Joshi said it is possible that the Russian leader may be striving for a “long term integration” of Russian and Belarussian military power.

This, he said, “would pose a real threat to Poland and the Baltic states”, consolidating “Putin’s rule”.

Belarus has close ties with Russia, with the country’s leader Alexander Lukashenko last week committing to stand by Moscow in a war against the West.

He also accused the West of trying to “drown” the Russian-Ukrainian brotherhood in blood.

In his annual address to the nation, he promised to “bring our Ukraine back into the fold of Slavism.”

Mr Putin subsequently accused the West of deliberately trying to lure Russia into war and ignoring Russia’s security concerns over Ukraine.

He said: “Ukraine itself is just an instrument to achieve this goal.

“This can be done in different ways, by drawing us into some kind of armed conflict and, with the help of their allies in Europe, forcing the introduction against us of those harsh sanctions they are talking about now in the U.S.”

Speaking on the Talking Politics podcast, Mr Joshi explained Belarus’ significance, saying: “Russian forces are streaming into Belarus for what are said to be ‘exercises’.

“They’re not really exercises – they weren’t planned.

“There is a possibility that after we see a constitutional referendum in Belarus this month, that Russia simply stays there in force.

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“You can call it an annexation of Belarus if you like, I think that’s a bit of a strong word.

“Some people talk about the ‘union state’ of Belarus and Russia.

“But the point is, a long term integration of the military capability of Belarus and Russia in a way that would pose a real threat to Poland and the Baltic states and would consolidate Putin’s rule and his legacy in various ways.

“Do I buy that completely? No. But I think it’s a possibility that we ought to be alive to – that he says, ‘well, I didn’t get what I wanted but I’m sticking around in Belarus. This is now the future of European security, deal with it.”

In response to the Russian build up of troops in Ukraine, NATO has stationed roughly 4,000 troops in Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland, supported by tanks, air defences and intelligence and surveillance units.

A total of 8,500 US troops have also been put on heightened alert for possible deployment to eastern Europe, the Pentagon has said.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has warned of “gloomy” intelligence, suggesting that Moscow is planning an imminent raid on Kiev.

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