Ukraine: Ben Mainardi discusses threat of starvation

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Junior Analyst at the Centre for Maritime Strategy Benjamin Mainardi has warned Russia’s President Vladimir Putin’s blockade of food supply in Ukraine’s ports, and most specifically grain from Ukraine, could affect up to 276 million people and lead to violence and uprisings like the ones observed during the Arab Spring in the early 2010s. According to David Beasley, the executive director of the United Nations World Food Programme, famine in some countries could trigger mass migration worldwide. 

Some experts argue Vladimir Putin is weaponizing food scarcity to spur mass migration from the Middle East and North Africa in a bid to destabilise Ukraine’s allies in its defence against Russia’s invasion.

When asked about that theory, Mr Mainardi told Times Radio: “I’m not sure about the migration factor, but what I can say is we do have recent historical precedents for rising food prices and decreasing food supply leading to violence and strife.

“That’s what happened in the Arab Spring, as you probably recall from the early 2010s. You know, there was underlying political motivations, but one of the major contributing factors was, we also saw the rising price of foodstuffs.

“And when food became scarce, violence becomes almost inevitable.

“The countries that are importing the most of Ukrainian grain are, as you mentioned, these countries throughout the Middle East and North Africa, countries like Lebanon, Yemen, Pakistan, Iran, Egypt.”

Mr Mainardi said: “And you know, these states are not necessarily the wealthiest and the most stable domestically there. A lot of them are fragile. And once food supplies start being interrupted and the flow to these countries gets weaned off, there’s going to be a major problem.

“And you know, there’s non-state actors like the United Nations World Food Programme. There’s also been a major buyer of Ukrainian grain. Just in mid-May, their director state that the war is going to jeopardise the food security of roughly 276 million people.”

Times Radio’s host then jumped in, asking: “What, in your view, is a double way through this? I mean, I’ve seen discussion of the use of naval escort vessels from whichever country to guide freighters laden with grain out of these Ukrainian ports.”

“That obviously runs the risk of those escort ships running into conflict with Russian navy ships, too. There are mines to be dealt with. I mean, what sort of option is viable?”, Times Radio’s host asked.

Mr Mainardi said: “Well, you’re absolutely right. This discussion is going and is starting to look a lot like the earlier discussions about imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

“You know, there’s the Black Sea fleet. Much has been made of the loss of the Moskva, but they still have at least 20 to 30 surface warfare ships. They have estimated six-kilo class submarines that if so, Russia decided could be used to interdict shipping. There is the mine threat.

“But the complicating factor here is we simply don’t know what the extent of the mine threat is until we get minesweepers in there and starting conducting those counter-mine warfare operations.”

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“And so, you know, those ideas being floated out there about a NAYO-led or a United Nations-led escort operation, there are good ideas in the kernel of what they’re trying to achieve”, Mr Mainardi added.

“But those complicating factors are playing major risks to escalating the war. And so right now, I’m not sure what the best path forward is because it’s also a question of re-establishing a supply chain that’s been disrupted.

“It’s not just one convoy that will need to be supported. It’s going to be dozens of convoys for the foreseeable future until Russia backs out of the war and stops its own blockade.”

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