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US crude oil 2019 output expected to rise less than predicted

12/10/2019

American worker productivity drops most since 2015 as labor costs shrink

Labor market still growing at a recovery rate: Ed Lazear

Former chief economic adviser under Bush 43 Ed Lazear discusses November’s lower than expected ADP jobs growth, the overall strength of the U.S. economy and the importance of a China trade deal.

WASHINGTON — U.S. worker productivity fell by the most in nearly four years in the third quarter, the government confirmed, while growth in unit labor costs was not as robust as initially thought.

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The Labor Department said on Tuesday nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, decreased at a 0.2% annualized rate in the last quarter, the biggest drop since the fourth quarter of 2015.

WALL STREET COMPENSATION AND BONUS PAY TAKING A BEATING

Productivity was previously reported to have decreased at a 0.3% pace in the July-September quarter. A rebound in hours, driven by a surge in the volatile self-employed and unpaid family workers component, outpaced output in the third quarter.

Productivity grew at an unrevised 2.5% rate in the second quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had expected third-quarter productivity would be revised up to show it falling at a 0.1% rate.

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The government last month revised up third-quarter gross domestic product growth to a 2.1% rate from a 1.9% pace.

New Zealand: Eight missing after volcanic eruption 'likely dead'

At least six people were killed in the eruption on White Island and dozens more injured.

Police in New Zealand say the eight people still missing after Monday’s volcanic eruption are likely dead.

At least six people were killed in the eruption on White Island and dozens more injured.

Police have launched an investigation into the circumstances surrounding their deaths.

The volcano’s alert level had been raised in November, but tour groups had still been visiting.

Al Jazeera’s Jessica Washington has more from Auckland

German ZEW Economic Confidence Strongest Since Early 2018

Germany’s economic sentiment strengthened notably to the highest level in 22 months in December as strong exports and labor market conditions boosted expectations among financial experts, survey data from the ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research in Mannheim showed on Tuesday.

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment rose to 10.7 in December from -2.1 in November. This was the highest reading since February 2018, when the score was 17.8. The score was also well above the forecast of 3.5 points.

The indicator for the current situation improved to -19.9 from -24.7 in the previous month. Economists had forecast the index to climb moderately to -22.0.

The renewed substantial rise in sentiment may seem surprising, ZEW President Achim Wambach said. It rests on the hope that German exports and private consumption will perform better than prior estimates.

This hope results from a higher than expected German foreign trade surplus in October, alongside relatively robust economic growth in the EU in the third quarter and a stable German labor market, he noted.

“The rather unfavorable figures for industrial production and incoming orders for October, however, show that the economy is still quite fragile,” Wambach added.

Sentiment concerning economic development in the euro area also improved considerably at the end of the year. The economic confidence indicator advanced 12.2 points to 11.2 in December. Likewise, the current economic situation index rose 4.9 points to -14.7.

Gold prices end higher for first time in 3 sessions

Gold rose on Tuesday, with prices finding support after posting two consecutive sessions of losses. Traders eyed the potential for a U.S.-China trade deal and awaited the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, which ends Wednesday. February gold GCG20, +0.24% lost $3.20, or 0.2%, to settle at $1,468.10 an ounce.

European Economics Preview: UK GDP Data Due

GDP data from the UK and economic confidence from Germany are due on Tuesday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Statistics Norway is slated to issue consumer and producer prices for November. Inflation is seen at 1.7 percent versus 1.8 percent in October.

At 2.45 am ET, the statistical office Insee releases France industrial production data for October.

At 3.00 am ET, November consumer price figures are due from the Czech Republic and Hungary. The Czech inflation is forecast to rise to 2.9 percent from 2.7 percent in October. Likewise, Hungary’s inflation is expected to rise to 3.3 percent from 2.9 percent.

At 4.30 am ET, the Office for National Statistics is slated to issue the UK monthly GDP, industrial production and foreign trade data. GDP is forecast to remain flat on month in October, following a 0.1 percent drop in September.

UK industrial production is expected to climb 0.3 percent on month and manufacturing output is forecast to gain 0.2 percent. The visible trade deficit is expected to narrow to GBP 11.67 billion from GBP 12.54 billion in September.

At 5.00 am ET, Germany’s ZEW economic confidence survey data is due. Economists forecast the confidence index to improve to 3.5 in December from -2.1 in November.

In the meantime, Italy’s Istat releases October industrial output figures. Production is seen falling 0.2 percent on month after easing 0.4 percent in September.