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International students, backpackers and other temporary migrants are expected to trickle rather than flood back into Australia after borders open to them again on Wednesday.

The new policy opens the way for about 150,000 study visa holders, another 200,000 holders of other temporary visas and skilled migrants to arrive without travel exemptions if they are fully vaccinated.

But a headlong rush through the arrivals gates in the coming days is unlikely. Qantas reports no spike in arrivals booked for the coming days and Melbourne backpacker hostels are reporting small increases in inquiries but few reservations.

Those visa holders who do arrive in the next few weeks are likely to find themselves in high demand from employers, educational institutions and landlords, who have all suffered economically through the closed borders.

International education expert Peter Hurley from Victoria University’s Mitchell Institute said there would be far fewer international students in Australia in 2022 than before the pandemic.

“There were 580,000 international students in the country in October 2019. Now there’s 200,000 … and there’s 150,000 outside the country,” Dr Hurley said.

Backpackers are returning, but not yet in great numbers.Credit:Ashley Gilbertson

“So even if all of them came back here, you’d probably only get to about 400,000 international students. So you’re looking at a lot less no matter what.”

Dr Hurley said international student numbers were not expected to approach pre-pandemic levels until 2023, although he had not observed any sharpening of competition among Australian universities, despite the diminishing number of students.

But Melbourne City Council is aware that it is competing against other cities in the overseas education market and was expected to approve on Tuesday night a package of incentives to lure international students including free tickets to events and attractions, wellness and wellbeing support and employment advice.

Lord mayor Sally Capp said the package was about trying to maintain Melbourne’s edge over other cities as an education destination.

Melbourne’s largest hospitality recruitment firm, Hotelstaff , which used to hire large numbers of backpackers and others from overseas before the borders shut, said the labour crisis in the sector was not about to end with the re-admission of overseas workers.

“We’re not being inundated with requests from people basically saying, ‘Hi, I’m arriving next week,’ whereas previously, you would get a decent number of applications coming through that way,” Hotelstaff managing director Nathan Szprinc said.

“I believe it will be a trickle.”

Those who did arrive, Mr Szprinc said, would be in high demand, with no end in sight to “extreme” labour shortages plaguing the industry.

“They’ll be able to pick and choose their employees based on incentives being offered and based on convenience of the work,” he said.

Yong Pum and wife Yee Hoo run the Queen Victoria backpacker hostel in North Melbourne.Credit:Eddie Jim

At the Queen Victoria backpacker hostel in North Melbourne, co-owner Yong Pum said his bookings were not indicating an imminent influx of young people on working holidays to revive the business, which had thrived before the pandemic.

“We haven’t had bookings for the month of January,” he said. “We’ve got some inquiries for January, but they’re inquiries, they’re not bookings.”

Emma Germano, president of the Victorian Farmers Federation.Credit:Simon Schluter

“But I’m hoping that when it does happen that we will be booked up like we were before the first lockdown.”

The rural sector, which is also experiencing a severe shortage of workers, will also be vying for the services of temporary migrants arriving from Wednesday.

Victorian Farmers Federation president Emma Germano welcomed the opening of the borders but said the crisis was far from over.

“It’s a step in the right direction towards providing the certainty farmers need to plan and ensure our food security,” Ms Germano said.

“We’re under no illusions this will be a quick fix to our labour shortages, but any boost in worker numbers is welcome.”

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